ArticleBulletin of the World Health Organization2015
Tuberculosis control in China: use of modelling to develop targets and policies.
Article in Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 57 citations in OpenAlex.
- Population-level mathematical modeling of antimicrobial resistance: a systematic review.BMC medicine · 2019Pooled it
- Feasibility of ending tuberculosis in Shangrao City through active intervention measures: a mathematical study.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Spatiotemporal analysis and seasonality of tuberculosis in Pudong New Area of Shanghai, China, 2014-2023.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis under the regular COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control in China.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Time trend prediction and spatial-temporal analysis of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Guizhou Province, China, during 2014-2020.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Social Support and Depression Among Pulmonary Tuberculosis Patients in Anhui, China.Journal of multidisciplinary healthcare · 2022Article
- The Potential Role of Vitamin D in the Development of Tuberculosis in Chinese Han Population: One Case-Control Study.Frontiers in medicine · 2022Article
- Article
- The COVID-19 Pandemic and Elimination of Tuberculosis in China.China CDC weekly · 2021Article
- Assessing the Quality of Reporting to China's National TB Surveillance Systems.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Assessment of Strategies and Epidemiological Characteristics of Tuberculosis in Henan Province, China: Observational Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2021Observational
- Rising challenge of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in China: a predictive study using Markov modeling.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2020Article
- Epidemic Trends of Tuberculosis in China from 1990 to 2017: Evidence from the Global Burden of Disease Study.Infection and drug resistance · 2020Article
- Utilization and expenses of outpatient services among tuberculosis patients in three Chinese counties: an observational comparison study.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2019Article
- Prognostic value of serum macrophage migration inhibitory factor levels in pulmonary tuberculosis.Respiratory research · 2019Article
- Trend in risk of delay in diagnosis of new pulmonary tuberculosis in Northwest China from 2008 to 2017.BMC infectious diseases · 2019Article
- Under-reporting of diagnosed tuberculosis to the national surveillance system in China: an inventory study in nine counties in 2015.BMJ open · 2019Article
- Recent transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in China: the implication of molecular epidemiology for tuberculosis control.Frontiers of medicine · 2018Review
- Surgical release for tubercular elbow stiffness.Infection and drug resistance · 2018Article
- Tuberculosis infection in rural labor migrants in Shenzhen, China: Emerging challenge to tuberculosis control during urbanization.Scientific reports · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
It is unclear if current programmes in China can achieve the post-2015 global targets for tuberculosis - 50% reduction in incidence and a 75% reduction in mortality by 2025. Chinese policy-makers need to maintain the recent decline in the prevalence of tuberculosis, while revising control policies to cope with an epidemic of drug-resistant tuberculosis and the effects of ongoing health reform. Health reforms are expected to shift patients from tuberculosis dispensaries to designated hospitals. We developed a mathematical model of tuberculosis control in China to help set appropriate targets and prioritize interventions that might be implemented in the next 10 years. This model indicates that, even under the most optimistic scenario - improved treatment in tuberculosis dispensaries, introduction of a new effective regimen for the treatment of drug-susceptible tuberculosis and optimal care of cases of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis - the current global targets for tuberculosis are unlikely to be reached. However, reductions in the incidence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis should be feasible. We conclude that a shift of patients from tuberculosis dispensaries to designated hospitals is likely to hamper efforts at tuberculosis control if cure rates in the designated hospitals cannot be maintained at a high level. Our results can inform the planning of tuberculosis control in China.
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