ArticleBMC research notes2015
On the transmission dynamics of Buruli ulcer in Ghana: Insights through a mathematical model.
Article in BMC research notes, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Transmission models of Mycobacterium ulcerans: A systematic review.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Pooled it
- Modelling Temperature-dependent Schistosomiasis Dynamics for Single and Co-infections with S. mansoni and S. haematobium.PloS one · 2025Article
- Molecular Informatics Studies of the Iron-Dependent Regulator (ideR) Reveal Potential Novel Anti-Molecules (Basel, Switzerland) · 2019Article
- Buruli Ulcer, a Prototype for Ecosystem-Related Infection, Caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans.Clinical microbiology reviews · 2018Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundMycobacterium ulcerans is know to cause the Buruli ulcer. The association between the ulcer and environmental exposure has been documented. However, the epidemiology of the ulcer is not well understood. A hypothesised transmission involves humans being bitten by the water bugs that prey on mollusks, snails and young fishes.
methodsIn this paper, a model for the transmission of Mycobacterium ulcerans to humans in the presence of a preventive strategy is proposed and analysed. The model equilibria are determined and conditions for the existence of the equilibria established. The model analysis is carried out in terms of the reproduction number [Formula: see text]. The disease free equilibrium is found to be locally asymptotically stable for [Formula: see text] The model is fitted to data from Ghana.
resultsThe model is found to exhibit a backward bifurcation and the endemic equilibrium point is globally stable when [Formula: see text] Sensitivity analysis showed that the Buruli ulcer epidemic is highly influenced by the shedding and clearance rates of Mycobacterium ulcerans in the environment. The model is found to fit reasonably well to data from Ghana and projections on the future of the Buruli ulcer epidemic are also made.
conclusionsThe model reasonably fitted data from Ghana. The fitting process showed data that appeared to have reached a steady state and projections showed that the epidemic levels will remain the same for the projected time. The implications of the results to policy and future management of the disease are discussed.
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