ArticleBMC infectious diseases2015
Time series analysis of reported cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease from 2010 to 2013 in Wuhan, China.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 42 citations in OpenAlex.
- A screening study on the detection strain of Coxsackievirus A6: the key to evaluating neutralizing antibodies in vaccines.Emerging microbes & infections · 2024Article
- NSUN2 mediates distinct pathways to regulate enterovirus 71 replication.Virologica Sinica · 2024Article
- Study of the influence of meteorological factors on HFMD and prediction based on the LSTM algorithm in Fuzhou, China.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Analysis of bluetongue disease epizootics in sheep of Andhra Pradesh, India using spatial and temporal autocorrelation.Veterinary research communications · 2022Article
- Global emergence of Enterovirus 71: a systematic review.Beni-Suef University journal of basic and applied sciences · 2022Review
- Identifying pre-outbreak signals of hand, foot and mouth disease based on landscape dynamic network marker.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Analysis and predication of tuberculosis registration rates in Henan Province, China: an exponential smoothing model study.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2020Article
- The effects of air pollution and meteorological factors on measles cases in Lanzhou, China.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2020Article
- Spatial-temporal heterogeneity of hand, foot and mouth disease and impact of meteorological factors in arid/ semi-arid regions: a case study in Ningxia, China.BMC public health · 2019Article
- Inhibition of enterovirus 71 replication and viral 3C protease by quercetin.Virology journal · 2018Article
- Role of temperature in reported chickenpox cases in northern European countries: Denmark and Finland.BMC research notes · 2018Article
- Spatio-temporal analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and hand-foot-mouth disease in Beijing, China.BMC infectious diseases · 2018Article
- Predicting the outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Nanjing, China: a time-series model based on weather variability.International journal of biometeorology · 2018Article
- Hand, foot and mouth disease: current knowledge on clinical manifestations, epidemiology, aetiology and prevention.European journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology · 2018Review
- Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatial-Temporal Distribution of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Chongqing, China, 2009-2016.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2018Article
- Application of seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average model in forecasting the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Wuhan, China.Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology. Medical sciences = Hua zhong ke ji da xue xue bao. Yi xue Ying De wen ban = Huazhong keji daxue xuebao. Yixue Yingdewen ban · 2017Article
- Association between meteorological factors and reported cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease from 2000 to 2015 in Japan.Epidemiology and infection · 2017Article
- Role of meteorological conditions in reported chickenpox cases in Wuhan and Hong Kong, China.BMC infectious diseases · 2017Article
- Enterovirus 71 infection and vaccines.Clinical and experimental vaccine research · 2017Review
- The Current Status of the Disease Caused by Enterovirus 71 Infections: Epidemiology, Pathogenesis, Molecular Epidemiology, and Vaccine Development.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2016Review
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 5 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundHand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an infectious disease caused by a group of enteroviruses, including Coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16) and Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71). In recent decades, Asian countries have experienced frequent and widespread HFMD outbreaks, with deaths predominantly among children. In several Asian countries, epidemics usually peak in the late spring/early summer, with a second small peak in late autumn/early winter. We investigated the possible underlying association between the seasonality of HFMD epidemics and meteorological variables, which could improve our ability to predict HFMD epidemics.
methodsWe used a time series analysis composed of a spectral analysis based on the maximum entropy method (MEM) in the frequency domain and the nonlinear least squares method in the time domain. The time series analysis was applied to three kinds of monthly time series data collected in Wuhan, China, where high-quality surveillance data for HFMD have been collected: (i) reported cases of HFMD, (ii) reported cases of EV-A71 and CVA16 detected in HFMD patients, and (iii) meteorological variables.
resultsIn the power spectral densities for HFMD and EV-A71, the dominant spectral lines were observed at frequency positions corresponding to 1-year and 6-month cycles. The optimum least squares fitting (LSF) curves calculated for the 1-year and 6-month cycles reproduced the bimodal cycles that were clearly observed in the HFMD and EV-A71 data. The peak months on the LSF curves for the HFMD data were consistent with those for the EV-A71 data. The risk of infection was relatively high at 10 °C ≤ t < 15 °C (t, temperature [°C]) and 15 °C ≤ t < 20 °C, and peaked at 20 °C ≤ t < 25 °C.
conclusionIn this study, the HFMD infections occurring in Wuhan showed two seasonal peaks, in summer (June) and winter (November or December). The results obtained with a time series analysis suggest that the bimodal seasonal peaks in HFMD epidemics are attributable to EV-A71 epidemics. Our results suggest that controlling the spread of EV-A71 infections when the temperature is approximately 20-25 °C should be considered to prevent HFMD infections in Wuhan, China.
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