ArticleStatistics in medicine2016
Bayesian meta-analytical methods to incorporate multiple surrogate endpoints in drug development process.
Article in Statistics in medicine, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 23 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Handling missing within-study correlations in the evaluation of surrogate endpoints.Statistics in medicine · 2023Pooled it
- Use of copula to model within-study association in bivariate meta-analysis of binomial data at the aggregate level: A Bayesian approach and application to surrogate endpoint evaluation.Statistics in medicine · 2022Pooled it
- Evaluation of pathological complete response as surrogate endpoint in neoadjuvant randomised clinical trials of early stage breast cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2021Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Bayesian bivariate meta-analysis of correlated effects: Impact of the prior distributions on the between-study correlation, borrowing of strength, and joint inferences.Statistical methods in medical research · 2018Pooled it
- Estimating the Potential Benefits of Confirmatory Trials for Drugs with Accelerated Approval: A Comprehensive Value of Information Framework.PharmacoEconomics · 2023Trial
- A review of evidence supporting amyloid beta reduction as a surrogate endpoint in Alzheimer's disease.The journal of prevention of Alzheimer's disease · 2026Review
- AAdvances in neural information processing systems · 2025Article
- A Review of Methods for Research Synthesis.Statistics in medicine · 2025Article
- Sustained Virological Response as a Surrogate Marker for Mortality, Decompensated Cirrhosis, or Hepatocellular Carcinoma in People With Chronic Hepatitis C Virus Infection Treated With Direct-Acting Antivirals: Protocol for a Bayesian and Causal Mediation Analysis.JMIR research protocols · 2025Article
- Article
- Using Bayesian Evidence Synthesis Methods to Incorporate Real-World Evidence in Surrogate Endpoint Evaluation.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2023Article
- Bayesian meta-analytical methods to incorporate multiple surrogate endpoints in drug development process.Statistics in medicine · 2022Article
- A Bayesian Mixture Modelling of Stop Signal Reaction Time Distributions: The Second Contextual Solution for the Problem of Aftereffects of Inhibition on SSRT Estimations.Brain sciences · 2021Article
- Classifying information-sharing methods.BMC medical research methodology · 2021Article
- Study design flaws and statistical challenges in evaluating fertility treatments.Reproduction & fertility · 2021Review
- HTA methodology and value frameworks for evaluation and policy making for cell and gene therapies.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2020Article
- Bayesian hierarchical meta-analytic methods for modeling surrogate relationships that vary across treatment classes using aggregate data.Statistics in medicine · 2020Article
- Bivariate network meta-analysis for surrogate endpoint evaluation.Statistics in medicine · 2019Article
- Bayesian Multiparameter Evidence Synthesis to Inform Decision Making: A Case Study in Metastatic Hormone-Refractory Prostate Cancer.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
A number of meta-analytical methods have been proposed that aim to evaluate surrogate endpoints. Bivariate meta-analytical methods can be used to predict the treatment effect for the final outcome from the treatment effect estimate measured on the surrogate endpoint while taking into account the uncertainty around the effect estimate for the surrogate endpoint. In this paper, extensions to multivariate models are developed aiming to include multiple surrogate endpoints with the potential benefit of reducing the uncertainty when making predictions. In this Bayesian multivariate meta-analytic framework, the between-study variability is modelled in a formulation of a product of normal univariate distributions. This formulation is particularly convenient for including multiple surrogate endpoints and flexible for modelling the outcomes which can be surrogate endpoints to the final outcome and potentially to one another. Two models are proposed, first, using an unstructured between-study covariance matrix by assuming the treatment effects on all outcomes are correlated and second, using a structured between-study covariance matrix by assuming treatment effects on some of the outcomes are conditionally independent. While the two models are developed for the summary data on a study level, the individual-level association is taken into account by the use of the Prentice's criteria (obtained from individual patient data) to inform the within study correlations in the models. The modelling techniques are investigated using an example in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis where the disability worsening is the final outcome, while relapse rate and MRI lesions are potential surrogates to the disability progression.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.