ArticleScientific reports2015
Non-periodic outbreaks of recurrent epidemics and its network modelling.
Article in Scientific reports, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Dynamics of an SIS network model with a periodic infection rate.Applied mathematical modelling · 2021Article
- The Dynamical Interplay of Collective Attention, Awareness and Epidemics Spreading in the Multiplex Social Networks During COVID-19.IEEE access : practical innovations, open solutions · 2020Article
- A dynamic vaccination strategy to suppress the recurrent epidemic outbreaks.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2018Article
- A paradox of epidemics between the state and parameter spaces.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- Analysis of epidemic spreading process in multi-communities.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2018Article
- Quantifying the propagation of distress and mental disorders in social networks.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- Multiple peaks patterns of epidemic spreading in multi-layer networks.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2018Article
- Synchronized and mixed outbreaks of coupled recurrent epidemics.Scientific reports · 2017Article
- Hysteresis loop of nonperiodic outbreaks of recurrent epidemics.Physical review. E · 2016Article
- The Impact of Heterogeneity and Awareness in Modeling Epidemic Spreading on Multiplex Networks.Scientific reports · 2016Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
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Abstract
The study of recurrent epidemic outbreaks has been attracting great attention for decades, but its underlying mechanism is still under debate. Based on a large number of real data from different cities, we find that besides the seasonal periodic outbreaks of influenza, there are also non-periodic outbreaks, i.e. non-seasonal or non-annual behaviors. To understand how the non-periodicity shows up, we present a network model of SIRS epidemic with both time-dependent infection rate and a small possibility of persistent epidemic seeds, representing the influences from the larger annual variation of environment and the infection generated spontaneously in nature, respectively. Our numerical simulations reveal that the model can reproduce the non-periodic outbreaks of recurrent epidemics with the main features of real influenza data. Further, we find that the recurrent outbreaks of epidemic depend not only on the infection rate but also on the density of susceptible agents, indicating that they are both the necessary conditions for the recurrent epidemic patterns with non-periodicity. A theoretical analysis based on Markov dynamics is presented to explain the numerical results. This finding may be of significance to the control of recurrent epidemics.
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