SynthesisJournal of clinical pharmacology2016
Short-Term Efficacy Reliably Predicts Long-Term Clinical Benefit in Rheumatoid Arthritis Clinical Trials as Demonstrated by Model-Based Meta-Analysis.
Synthesis in Journal of clinical pharmacology, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 7 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 7 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 19 citations in OpenAlex.
- Combining Aggregate Data and Individual Patient Data in Model-Based Meta-Analysis: An Illustrative Case Study of Tofacitinib in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients.CPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology · 2026Pooled it
- Subcutaneous methotrexate compared with oral methotrexate in rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in immunology · 2026Pooled it
- Joint longitudinal model-based meta-analysis of FEVJournal of pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics · 2023Pooled it
- Applications of Model-Based Meta-Analysis in Drug Development.Pharmaceutical research · 2022Pooled it
- Model-Based Meta-Analysis Compares DAS28 Rheumatoid Arthritis Treatment Effects and Suggests an Expedited Trial Design for Early Clinical Development.Clinical pharmacology and therapeutics · 2021Pooled it
- Model-Based Meta-Analysis for Multiple Myeloma: A Quantitative Drug-Independent Framework for Efficient Decisions in Oncology Drug Development.Clinical and translational science · 2018Pooled it
- Model-based Meta-Analysis on the Efficacy of Pharmacological Treatments for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.CPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology · 2017Pooled it
- The Role of Pharmacometrics in Advancing the Therapies for Autoimmune Diseases.Pharmaceutics · 2024Review
- Population Pharmacokinetics, Efficacy Exposure-response Analysis, and Model-based Meta-analysis of Fenebrutinib in Subjects with Rheumatoid Arthritis [corrected].Pharmaceutical research · 2020Article
- Many Flavors of Model-Based Meta-Analysis: Part II - Modeling Summary Level Longitudinal Responses.CPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology · 2018Review
- Translational Modeling and Simulation in Supporting Early-Phase Clinical Development of New Drug: A Learn-Research-Confirm Process.Clinical pharmacokinetics · 2017Article
- Model-Based Network Meta-Analysis: A Framework for Evidence Synthesis of Clinical Trial Data.CPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology · 2016Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The objective of this study was to assess the relationship between short-term and long-term treatment effects measured by the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 50 responses and to assess the feasibility of predicting 6-month efficacy from short-term data. A rheumatoid arthritis (RA) database was constructed from 68 reported trials. We focused on the relationship between 3- and 6-month ACR50 treatment effects and developed a generalized nonlinear model to quantify the relationship and test the impact of covariates. The ΔACR50 at 6 months strongly correlated with that at 3 months, moderately correlated with that at 2 months, and only weakly correlated with results obtained at <2 months. A scaling factor that reflected the ratio of 6- to 3-month treatment effects was estimated to be 0.997, suggesting that the treatment effects at 3 months are approaching a "plateau." Drug classes, baseline Disease Activity Score in 28 Joints, and the magnitude of control arm response did not show significant impacts on the scaling factor. This work quantitatively supports the empirical clinical development paradigm of using 3-month efficacy data to predict long-term efficacy and to inform the probability of clinical success based on early efficacy readout.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.