ReviewStatistics in medicine2016
Review and evaluation of penalised regression methods for risk prediction in low-dimensional data with few events.
Review in Statistics in medicine, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 192 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
192 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- External validation of prognostic models predicting pre-eclampsia: individual participant data meta-analysis.BMC medicine · 2020Pooled it
- Prognostic Models for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients with Primary Gastric Cancer: A Systematic Review.BioMed research international · 2019Pooled it
- Prognostic variables and scores identifying the end of life in COPD: a systematic review.International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · 2017Pooled it
- Modifiable prognostic factors of high societal costs among people on sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders: a replication study.BMC musculoskeletal disorders · 2024Trial
- A comparison of penalised regression methods for informing the selection of predictive markers.PloS one · 2020Trial
- Prediction of pre-eclampsia and its subtypes in high-risk cohort: hyperglycosylated human chorionic gonadotropin in multivariate models.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2018Trial
- IMPACT: Integrated Model For Patient Acuity, Care, And Triage Efficiency In Emergency Department.Journal of medical systems · 2026Article
- Perfusion Pressure Deficits as Early Indicators of Abdominal Compartment Syndrome After Neonatal Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia Repair: A Retrospective Cohort Study.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Three-year cardiovascular risk prediction among people who use cocaine or methamphetamine.Drug and alcohol dependence reports · 2026Article
- Article
- Task-specific determinants of one-year performance after unilateral primary total knee arthroplasty.Bone & joint open · 2026Article
- Risk factors and a diagnostic nomogram for early prediction of gram-positive coccal etiology in spontaneous spinal infection.Infection · 2026Article
- Development of Machine Learning Algorithms Predicting Psychological Distress After Total Joint Arthroplasty.The Journal of arthroplasty · 2026Article
- The SUPREME Index for 30-day all-cause readmission: development and internal validation of a machine learning-based risk stratification index in community-dwelling adults.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2026Article
- The young researcher's guide to moderator variables.Indian journal of psychiatry · 2026Article
- Preoperative Prediction of Intraoperative Transfusion in Pediatric Craniosynostosis Surgery: An Exploratory Prediction Model Study.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2026Article
- Time-to-event risk prediction of dual sensory loss in middle-aged patients with symptomatic knee osteoarthritis: model development, preliminary external validation, and explainability analysis.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2026Article
- Back-to-base Versus In-transit Machine Perfusion in Donation After Circulatory Death Liver Transplantation: Insights From a National Registry.Transplantation direct · 2026Article
- Human Systems Immunology in the Omics Era: Challenges, Methods, and Emerging Directions.European journal of immunology · 2026Review
- Can Non-Conventional Blood Biomarkers Improve Running Performance Prediction? A Proof of Concept.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
132 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Risk prediction models are used to predict a clinical outcome for patients using a set of predictors. We focus on predicting low-dimensional binary outcomes typically arising in epidemiology, health services and public health research where logistic regression is commonly used. When the number of events is small compared with the number of regression coefficients, model overfitting can be a serious problem. An overfitted model tends to demonstrate poor predictive accuracy when applied to new data. We review frequentist and Bayesian shrinkage methods that may alleviate overfitting by shrinking the regression coefficients towards zero (some methods can also provide more parsimonious models by omitting some predictors). We evaluated their predictive performance in comparison with maximum likelihood estimation using real and simulated data. The simulation study showed that maximum likelihood estimation tends to produce overfitted models with poor predictive performance in scenarios with few events, and penalised methods can offer improvement. Ridge regression performed well, except in scenarios with many noise predictors. Lasso performed better than ridge in scenarios with many noise predictors and worse in the presence of correlated predictors. Elastic net, a hybrid of the two, performed well in all scenarios. Adaptive lasso and smoothly clipped absolute deviation performed best in scenarios with many noise predictors; in other scenarios, their performance was inferior to that of ridge and lasso. Bayesian approaches performed well when the hyperparameters for the priors were chosen carefully. Their use may aid variable selection, and they can be easily extended to clustered-data settings and to incorporate external information.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.