ArticleCurrent HIV research2016
Modeling Drinking Behavior Progression in Youth with Cross-sectional Data: Solving an Under-identified Probabilistic Discrete Event System.
Article in Current HIV research, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed, 2 citations in OpenAlex.
- Dynamic transitions between marijuana use and cigarette smoking among US adolescents and emerging adults.The American journal of drug and alcohol abuse · 2018Article
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5 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe probabilistic discrete event systems (PDES) method provides a promising approach to study dynamics of underage drinking using cross-sectional data. However, the utility of this approach is often limited because the constructed PDES model is often non-identifiable. The purpose of the current study is to attempt a new method to solve the model.
methodsA PDES-based model of alcohol use behavior was developed with four progression stages (never-drinkers [ND], light/moderate-drinker [LMD], heavy-drinker [HD], and ex-drinker [XD]) linked with 13 possible transition paths. We tested the proposed model with data for participants aged 12-21 from the 2012 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH). The Moore-Penrose (M-P) generalized inverse matrix method was applied to solve the proposed model.
resultsAnnual transitional probabilities by age groups for the 13 drinking progression pathways were successfully estimated with the M-P generalized inverse matrix approach. Result from our analysis indicates an inverse "J" shape curve characterizing pattern of experimental use of alcohol from adolescence to young adulthood. We also observed a dramatic increase for the initiation of LMD and HD after age 18 and a sharp decline in quitting light and heavy drinking.
conclusionOur findings are consistent with the developmental perspective regarding the dynamics of underage drinking, demonstrating the utility of the M-P method in obtaining a unique solution for the partially-observed PDES drinking behavior model. The M-P approach we tested in this study will facilitate the use of the PDES approach to examine many health behaviors with the widely available cross-sectional data.
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