ArticleEnvironmental research letters : ERL [Web site]2015
Winter Season Mortality: Will Climate Warming Bring Benefits?
Article in Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site], 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
37 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Impact of Short-Term Exposure to Extreme Temperatures on Mortality: A Multi-City Study in Belgium.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Pooled it
- The mediating role of acute respiratory infections in temperature-mortality associations in the Czech Republic, 1982-2019.International journal of biometeorology · 2026Article
- Influence of extreme heat waves as an aggravating factor in the cause of death from cardiovascular diseases in Southeast Brazil.Cadernos de saude publica · 2026Article
- Links between influenza epidemics, weather characteristics and all-cause mortality in the Czech Republic, 1982-2020.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Rising trend and regional disparities of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient low temperature, 1990-2019: An analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study.Journal of global health · 2024Article
- Contribution of Cold Versus Climate Change to Mortality in London, UK, 1976-2019.American journal of public health · 2024Article
- High-resolution projections of outdoor thermal stress in the twenty-first century: a Tasmanian case study.International journal of biometeorology · 2024Article
- Article
- Exploring vulnerability to heat and cold across urban and rural populations in Switzerland.Environmental research, health : ERH · 2023Article
- Data-Enhancement Strategies in Weather-Related Health Studies.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Effect of ambient temperature and other environmental factors on stroke emergency department visits in Beijing: A distributed lag non-linear model.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Weight of risk factors for mortality and short-term mortality displacement during the COVID-19 pandemic.Journal of preventive medicine and hygiene · 2021Article
- City-level vulnerability to temperature-related mortality in the USA and future projections: a geographically clustered meta-regression.The Lancet. Planetary health · 2021Article
- Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China.Nature communications · 2021Article
- A time series analysis of the relationship between ambient temperature and ischaemic stroke in the Ljubljana area: immediate, delayed and cumulative effects.BMC neurology · 2021Article
- Article
- Mapping the increased minimum mortality temperatures in the context of global climate change.Nature communications · 2019Article
- Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities.Science advances · 2019Article
- Mortality attributable to seasonal influenza in Greece, 2013 to 2017: variation by type/subtype and age, and a possible harvesting effect.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2019Article
- Effects of Diabetes Mellitus on the Mortality, Length of Hospital Stay and Number of Operations in Burn Patients.Annals of dermatology · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.
Identifiers
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.