ArticleParasites & vectors2015
Possible changes in the transmissibility of trachoma following MDA and transmission reduction: implications for the GET2020 goals.
Article in Parasites & vectors, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases.Gates open research · 2021Article
- Insights from mathematical modelling and quantitative analysis on the proposed 2030 goals for trachoma.Gates open research · 2019Article
- Measuring and modelling the effects of systematic non-adherence to mass drug administration.Epidemics · 2017Article
- Improving our forecasts for trachoma elimination: What else do we need to know?PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2017Article
- Article
- Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases.Parasites & vectors · 2015Article
- Short-term forecasting of the prevalence of clinical trachoma: utility of including delayed recovery and tests for infection.Parasites & vectors · 2015Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
backgroundThe role of mass drug administration (MDA) and the implementation of transmission reduction measures are essential to successfully control and eliminate a wide range of NTDs, including the ocular disease trachoma. Immunity to trachoma infection acts by reducing the duration of an individual's infectious period and by reducing their infectivity with each successive infection.
methodsIn this study, we use a model of trachoma infection, which includes population immunity, to explore the impact of treatment and transmission reduction measures on trachoma prevalence. Specifically, we investigate the possibility of increasing transmissibility of trachoma arising as MDA and transmission reduction measures are scaled up in endemic settings.
resultsWe demonstrate this increase in transmissibility by calculating the effective reproduction number during several simulated control programmes and show that it is related to a decrease in the level of immunity in the population.
conclusionsThis effect should be studied in the field by measuring the rate of return of infection and disease in at least two separate age groups. If the decline of population immunity is operating, it should be accounted for when planning for the GET2020 goal of eliminating blinding trachoma by 2020.
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