ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2015
Cholera Transmission in Ouest Department of Haiti: Dynamic Modeling and the Future of the Epidemic.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 21 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Antimicrobial Resistance of EnvironmentalInfectious disorders drug targets · 2025Pooled it
- Global status of antimicrobial resistance among environmental isolates of Vibrio cholerae O1/O139: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Antimicrobial resistance and infection control · 2022Pooled it
- Predictive intelligence for future vibriosis risk in the eastern United States employing Bayesian spatial modeling.Applied and environmental microbiology · 2026Article
- Machine learning in understanding environmental variability of vibriosis in coastal waters.Applied and environmental microbiology · 2025Article
- Informing policy via dynamic models: Cholera in Haiti.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Ancestral Origin and Dissemination Dynamics of Reemerging Toxigenic Vibrio cholerae, Haiti.Emerging infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Influence of Seasonal Hazards on Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene-Related Behavior and Implications for Cholera Transmission in Bangladesh.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2023Article
- Mathematical Models for Cholera Dynamics-A Review.Microorganisms · 2022Review
- A Review of the Environmental Trigger and Transmission Components for Prediction of Cholera.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2021Review
- Modelling the aqueous transport of an infectious pathogen in regional communities: application to the cholera outbreak in Haiti.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Spatial dynamics and the basic reproduction number of the 1991-1997 Cholera epidemic in Peru.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Article
- ToxigenicProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2020Article
- Increase in Reported Cholera Cases in Haiti Following Hurricane Matthew: An Interrupted Time Series Model.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2019Article
- Best practice assessment of disease modelling for infectious disease outbreaks.Epidemiology and infection · 2018Review
- Applications of Space Technologies to Global Health: Scoping Review.Journal of medical Internet research · 2018Article
- Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment and Infectious Disease Transmission Modeling of Waterborne Enteric Pathogens.Current environmental health reports · 2018Review
- Decoupling environmental effects and host population dynamics for anthrax, a classic reservoir-driven disease.PloS one · 2018Article
- Transmission dynamics of cholera in Yemen, 2017: a real time forecasting.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2017Article
- Controlling cholera in the Ouest Department of Haiti using oral vaccines.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2017Article
- Cholera in Cameroon, 2000-2012: Spatial and Temporal Analysis at the Operational (Health District) and Sub Climate Levels.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2016Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
In the current study, a comprehensive, data driven, mathematical model for cholera transmission in Haiti is presented. Along with the inclusion of short cycle human-to-human transmission and long cycle human-to-environment and environment-to-human transmission, this novel dynamic model incorporates both the reported cholera incidence and remote sensing data from the Ouest Department of Haiti between 2010 to 2014. The model has separate compartments for infectious individuals that include different levels of infectivity to reflect the distribution of symptomatic and asymptomatic cases in the population. The environmental compartment, which serves as a source of exposure to toxigenic V. cholerae, is also modeled separately based on the biology of causative bacterium, the shedding of V. cholerae O1 by humans into the environment, as well as the effects of precipitation and water temperature on the concentration and survival of V. cholerae in aquatic reservoirs. Although the number of reported cholera cases has declined compared to the initial outbreak in 2010, the increase in the number of susceptible population members and the presence of toxigenic V. cholerae in the environment estimated by the model indicate that without further improvements to drinking water and sanitation infrastructures, intermittent cholera outbreaks are likely to continue in Haiti.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.