ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2015
Big city, small world: density, contact rates, and transmission of dengue across Pakistan.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 43 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
43 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Characterizing dengue transmission in rural areas: A systematic review.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Pooled it
- Spatial connectivity in mosquito-borne disease models: a systematic review of methods and assumptions.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Pooled it
- Fitting dynamic measles models to subnational case notification data from Ethiopia: Methodological challenges and key considerations.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- "Dengue fever is not just urban or rural: Reframing its spatial categorization."Social science & medicine (1982) · 2024Article
- Climate, demography, immunology, and virology combine to drive two decades of dengue virus dynamics in Cambodia.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Impacts of climate change-related human migration on infectious diseases.Nature climate change · 2024Article
- Quantifying the benefits of healthy lifestyle behaviors and emotional expressivity in lowering the risk of COVID-19 infection: a national survey of Chinese population.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Ecosystem degradation and the spread of Covid-19.Environmental monitoring and assessment · 2023Review
- Meteorological indicators of dengue epidemics in non-endemic Northwest Argentina.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Independent evaluation of Wolbachia infected male mosquito releases for control of Aedes aegypti in Harris County, Texas, using a Bayesian abundance estimator.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Urban spatial epidemic simulation model: A case study of the second COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing, China.Transactions in GIS : TG · 2022Article
- Understanding the Impact of Walkability, Population Density, and Population Size on COVID-19 Spread: A Pilot Study of the Early Contagion in the United States.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- The impact of dengue illness on social distancing and caregiving behavior.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Crowding and the shape of COVID-19 epidemics.Nature medicine · 2020Article
- Climatological, virological and sociological drivers of current and projected dengue fever outbreak dynamics in Sri Lanka.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Quantifying the localized relationship between vector containment activities and dengue incidence in a real-world setting: A spatial and time series modelling analysis based on geo-located data from Pakistan.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Article
- Hidden heterogeneity and its influence on dengue vaccination impact.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2020Article
- Dengue illness impacts daily human mobility patterns in Iquitos, Peru.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Article
- Climate drives spatial variation in Zika epidemics in Latin America.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2019Article
- MVSE: An R-package that estimates a climate-driven mosquito-borne viral suitability index.Methods in ecology and evolution · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Macroscopic descriptions of populations commonly assume that encounters between individuals are well mixed; i.e. each individual has an equal chance of coming into contact with any other individual. Relaxing this assumption can be challenging though, due to the difficulty of acquiring detailed knowledge about the non-random nature of encounters. Here, we fitted a mathematical model of dengue virus transmission to spatial time-series data from Pakistan and compared maximum-likelihood estimates of 'mixing parameters' when disaggregating data across an urban-rural gradient. We show that dynamics across this gradient are subject not only to differing transmission intensities but also to differing strengths of nonlinearity due to differences in mixing. Accounting for differences in mobility by incorporating two fine-scale, density-dependent covariate layers eliminates differences in mixing but results in a doubling of the estimated transmission potential of the large urban district of Lahore. We furthermore show that neglecting spatial variation in mixing can lead to substantial underestimates of the level of effort needed to control a pathogen with vaccines or other interventions. We complement this analysis with estimates of the relationships between dengue transmission intensity and other putative environmental drivers thereof.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.