Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26434780›Full record

ArticleJournal of the International AIDS Society2015

Economic and epidemiological impact of early antiretroviral therapy initiation in India.

Manoj V Maddali, David W Dowdy, Amita Gupta, Maunank Shah

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the International AIDS Society, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.2field-weighted citation impact, top 22% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 15 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  10. Review
  11. Varied Immunological Response to Test and Treat with Antiretroviral Therapy: A Longitudinal Study with Mixed Model Analysis.Indian journal of community medicine : official publication of Indian Association of Preventive & Social Medicine
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Manoj V MaddaliDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
David W DowdyDepartment of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Amita GuptaDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Maunank ShahDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA; mshah28@jhmi.edu.
Johns Hopkins University · USJohns Hopkins Medicine · US

Funding

Vaccine Response and Immunotherapeutics SWGP30AI094189 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI Richard E. Chaisson · 2012 to 2026
$67.0M
The Johns Hopkins Baltimore-Washington-India Clinical Trials Unit (BWI CTU)UM1AI069465 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI Charles W. Flexner, Amita Gupta · 2012 to 2026
$34.1M
TUBERCULOSIS INTERNATIONAL TRAINING AND RESEARCH PROGRAMD43TW000010 · FIC · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI BEYRER, CHRISTOPHER C. · 1988 to 2012
$19.8M
Impact of Malnutrition on HIV Treatment Failure in Resource-Limited SettingsR01AI080417 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI GUPTA, AMITA · 2009 to 2012
$2.3M
Implementation Science Approaches for Novel TB Diagnostics in HIV Prevalent AreasK23AI089259 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI SHAH, MAUNANK · 2011 to 2015
$681k
FIC NIH HHS D43 TW000010FIC NIH HHS D43TW000010NIAID NIH HHS 1P30AI094189NIAID NIH HHS K23 AI089259NIAID NIH HHS K23AI089259NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI094189NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI080417NIAID NIH HHS R01AI080417NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI069465NIAID NIH HHS UM1AI069465
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionRecent WHO guidance advocates for early antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation at higher CD4 counts to improve survival and reduce HIV transmission. We sought to quantify how the cost-effectiveness and epidemiological impact of early ART strategies in India are affected by attrition throughout the HIV care continuum.

methodsWe constructed a dynamic compartmental model replicating HIV transmission, disease progression and health system engagement among Indian adults. Our model of the Indian HIV epidemic compared implementation of early ART initiation (i.e. initiation above CD4 ≥350 cells/mm(3)) with delayed initiation at CD4 ≤350 cells/mm(3); primary outcomes were incident cases, deaths, quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs) and costs over 20 years. We assessed how costs and effects of early ART initiation were impacted by suboptimal engagement at each stage in the HIV care continuum.

resultsAssuming "idealistic" engagement in HIV care, early ART initiation is highly cost-effective ($442/QALY-gained) compared to delayed initiation at CD4 ≤350 cells/mm(3) and could reduce new HIV infections to <15,000 per year within 20 years. However, when accounting for realistic gaps in care, early ART initiation loses nearly half of potential epidemiological benefits and is less cost-effective ($530/QALY-gained). We project 1,285,000 new HIV infections and 973,000 AIDS-related deaths with deferred ART initiation with current levels of care-engagement in India. Early ART initiation in this continuum resulted in 1,050,000 new HIV infections and 883,000 AIDS-related deaths, or 18% and 9% reductions (respectively), compared to current guidelines. Strengthening HIV screening increases benefits of earlier treatment modestly (1,001,000 new infections; 22% reduction), while improving retention in care has a larger modulatory impact (676,000 new infections; 47% reduction).

conclusionsEarly ART initiation is highly cost-effective in India but only has modest epidemiological benefits at current levels of care-engagement. Improved retention in care is needed to realize the full potential of earlier treatment.

Indexed as

AdultAnti-HIV AgentsCost-Benefit AnalysisHealth Care CostsHIV InfectionsHumansIndiaQuality-Adjusted Life YearsAnti-HIV Agentsantiretroviral therapycontinuum of carecost-effectivenessHIVIndia

Identifiers

PMID26434780
PMCPMC4592848
OpenAlexW2128158558

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.