ArticleEpidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)2016
Interpreting Seroepidemiologic Studies of Influenza in a Context of Nonbracketing Sera.
Article in Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.), 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- Estimating the Severity Profile of Enterovirus A71 Infections in Children: A Bayesian Synthesis Framework.American journal of epidemiology · 2019Trial
- Reconstructed influenza A/H3N2 infection histories reveal variation in incidence and antibody dynamics over the life course.PLoS biology · 2024Article
- An adaptive weight ensemble approach to forecast influenza activity in an irregular seasonality context.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Reconstructed influenza A/H3N2 infection histories reveal variation in incidence and antibody dynamics over the life course.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Investigation of the Impact of Childhood Immune Imprinting on Birth Year-Specific Risk of Clinical Infection During Influenza A Virus Epidemics in Hong Kong.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Investigation of CD4 and CD8 T cell-mediated protection against influenza A virus in a cohort study.BMC medicine · 2022Article
- Detection of Bourbon Virus-Specific Serum Neutralizing Antibodies in Human Serum in Missouri, USA.mSphere · 2022Article
- Reconstructing antibody dynamics to estimate the risk of influenza virus infection.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Dynamic interactions of influenza viruses in Hong Kong during 1998-2018.PLoS computational biology · 2020Article
- Individual and Population Trajectories of Influenza Antibody Titers Over Multiple Seasons in a Tropical Country.American journal of epidemiology · 2018Article
- Incidence of influenza A(H3N2) virus infections in Hong Kong in a longitudinal sero-epidemiological study, 2009-2015.PloS one · 2018Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIn influenza epidemiology, analysis of paired sera collected from people before and after influenza seasons has been used for decades to study the cumulative incidence of influenza virus infections in populations. However, interpretation becomes challenging when sera are collected after the start or before the end of an epidemic, and do not neatly bracket the epidemic.
methodsSerum samples were collected longitudinally in a community-based study. Most participants provided their first serum after the start of circulation of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in 2009. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to correct for nonbracketing sera and estimate the cumulative incidence of infection from the serological data and surveillance data in Hong Kong.
resultsWe analyzed 4,843 sera from 2,097 unvaccinated participants in the study, collected from April 2009 to December 2010. After accounting for nonbracketing, we estimated that the cumulative incidence of H1N1pdm09 virus infection was 45% (95% credible interval [CI] = 40%, 49%), 17% (95% CI = 13%, 20%), and 11% (95% CI = 6%, 18%) for children ages 0-18 years, adults 19-50 years, and older adults >50 years, respectively. Including all available data substantially increased precision compared with a simpler analysis based only on sera collected at 6-month intervals in a subset of participants.
conclusionsWe developed a framework for the analysis of antibody titers that accounted for the timing of sera collection with respect to influenza activity and permitted robust estimation of the cumulative incidence of infection during an epidemic.
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