Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26423553›Full record

ArticleThe lancet. HIV2015

Cost-effectiveness of population-level expansion of highly active antiretroviral treatment for HIV in British Columbia, Canada: a modelling study.

Bohdan Nosyk, Jeong E Min, Viviane D Lima, Robert S Hogg, Julio S G Montaner, STOP HIV/AIDS study group

Abstract readComparative Study
In one paragraph

Article in The lancet. HIV, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
36citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

36 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
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  5. CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne · 2026
    Article
  6. Canada must act to prevent the unravelling of progress toward curbing HIV/AIDS.CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne · 2025
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  16. MTrials · 2022
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  18. Prioritizing Additional Data Collection to Reduce Decision Uncertainty in the HIV/AIDS Response in 6 US Cities: A Value of Information Analysis.Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research · 2020
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Bohdan NosykBC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Jeong E MinBC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Viviane D LimaDivision of AIDS, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Robert S HoggBC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Julio S G MontanerBC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Division of AIDS, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada. Electronic address: jmontaner@cfenet.ubc.ca.
STOP HIV/AIDS study group

Funding

Seek and Treat for Optimal Outcomes and Prevention in HIV & AIDS in IDUDP1DA026182 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI MONTANER, JULIO SERGIO GONZALEZ · 2008 to 2013
$3.9M
Seek and Treat for Optimal Prevention of HIV & AIDS (STOP HIV/AIDS) in BCR01DA036307 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA · PI MONTANER, JULIO SERGIO GONZALEZ · 2013 to 2017
$3.0M
NIDA NIH HHS 1DP1DA026182NIDA NIH HHS DP1 DA026182NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA036307NIDA NIH HHS R01DA036307-01
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundWidespread HIV screening and access to highly active antiretroviral treatment (ART) were cost effective in mathematical models, but population-level implementation has led to questions about cost, value, and feasibility. In 1996, British Columbia, Canada, introduced universal coverage of drug and other health-care costs for people with HIV/AIDS and and began extensive scale-up in access to ART. We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of ART scale-up in British Columbia compared with hypothetical scenarios of constrained treatment access.

methodsUsing comprehensive linked population-level data, we populated a dynamic, compartmental transmission model to simulate the HIV/AIDS epidemic in British Columbia from 1997 to 2010. We estimated HIV incidence, prevalence, mortality, costs (in 2010 CAN$), and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for the study period, which was 1997-2010. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from societal and third-party-payer perspectives to compare actual practice (true numbers of individuals accessing ART) to scenarios of constrained expansion (75% and 50% probability of accessing ART). We also investigated structural and parameter uncertainty.

findingsActual practice resulted in 263 averted incident cases compared with 75% of observed access and 676 averted cases compared with 50% of observed access to ART. From a third-party-payer perspective, actual practice resulted in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $23 679 per QALY versus 75% access and $24 250 per QALY versus 50% access. From a societal perspective, actual practice was cost saving within the study period. When the model was extended to 2035, current observed access resulted in cumulative savings of $25·1 million compared with the 75% access scenario and $65·5 million compared with the 50% access scenario.

interpretationART scale-up in British Columbia has decreased HIV-related morbidity, mortality, and transmission. Resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for actual practice, derived within a limited timeframe, were within established cost-effectiveness thresholds and were cost saving from a societal perspective.

fundingBC Ministry of Health, National Institute of Drug Abuse at the US National Institutes of Health.

Indexed as

AdultAntiretroviral Therapy, Highly ActiveBritish ColumbiaCD4 Lymphocyte CountCost-Benefit AnalysisFeasibility StudiesFemaleHealth Care CostsHIV InfectionsHumansMaleModels, TheoreticalPrevalenceQuality-Adjusted Life YearsTreatment Outcome

Identifiers

PMID26423553
PMCPMC4610179

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.