ArticlePloS one2015
Agent-Based Model Forecasts Aging of the Population of People Who Inject Drugs in Metropolitan Chicago and Changing Prevalence of Hepatitis C Infections.
Article in PloS one, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 33 citations in OpenAlex.
- Pooled it
- County by county estimation of possible deaths averted, infections averted, and cost savings of overdose prevention centers in the United States from July 2019-June 2025.The International journal on drug policy · 2026Article
- Modeling Highlights the Challenge of Achieving and Maintaining Hepatitis C Virus Micro-Elimination Among People Who Inject Drugs.Open forum infectious diseases · 2026Article
- County by county estimation of possible deaths averted, infections averted, and cost savings of overdose prevention centers in the United States from July 2019-June 2025.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Challenges in coverage of future hepatitis C vaccines: Review and potential solutions.Vaccine · 2025Review
- Modeling of randomized hepatitis C vaccine trials: Bridging the gap between controlled human infection models and real-word testing.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Agent-Based Model of Combined Community- and Jail-Based Take-Home Naloxone Distribution.JAMA network open · 2024Article
- Spatial inequities in access to medications for treatment of opioid use disorder highlight scarcity of methadone providers under counterfactual scenarios.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Reducing Sample Size While Improving Equity in Vaccine Clinical Trials: A Machine Learning-Based Recruitment Methodology with Application to Improving Trials of Hepatitis C Virus Vaccines in People Who Inject Drugs.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Spatial inequities in access to medications for treatment of opioid use disorder highlight scarcity of methadone providers under counterfactual scenarios.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Extent and implications of omitted ties on network measures in a longitudinal social network survey of people who use drugs.Drug and alcohol dependence · 2022Article
- Ageing and older people who use illicit opioids, cocaine or methamphetamine: a scoping review and literature map.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2022Article
- Modeling hepatitis C micro-elimination among people who inject drugs with direct-acting antivirals in metropolitan Chicago.PloS one · 2022Article
- Application of Distributed Agent-based Modeling to Investigate Opioid Use Outcomes in Justice Involved Populations.IEEE International Symposium on Parallel & Distributed Processing, Workshops and Phd Forum : [proceedings]. IEEE International Symposium on Parallel & Distributed Processing, Workshops and Phd Forum · 2021Article
- A review of network simulation models of hepatitis C virus and HIV among people who inject drugs.The International journal on drug policy · 2021Review
- Article
- MULTI-OBJECTIVE MODEL EXPLORATION OF HEPATITIS C ELIMINATION IN AN AGENT-BASED MODEL OF PEOPLE WHO INJECT DRUGS.Proceedings of the ... Winter Simulation Conference. Winter Simulation Conference · 2019Article
- Prevalence, estimated incidence, risk behaviours, and genotypic distribution of hepatitis C virus among people who inject drugs accessing harm-reduction services in Kenya: a retrospective cohort study.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2019Article
- Article
- High-Risk Geographic Mobility Patterns among Young Urban and Suburban Persons who Inject Drugs and their Injection Network Members.Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010-2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(± 2)% to 36(± 5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(± 5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(± 1) to 40(± 2) with a corresponding increase from 59(± 2)% to 80(± 6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our studies highlight the importance of analyzing subpopulations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.