ArticleMedical care2015
Mortality Risk Prediction: Can Comorbidity Indices Be Improved With Psychosocial Data?
Article in Medical care, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Pooled it
- The less lonely and the more satisfied you are, the merrier is … the heart!European heart journal. Quality of care & clinical outcomes · 2025Article
- Health risk prediction models incorporating personality data: Motivation, challenges, and illustration.Personality disorders · 2019Article
- Infection Control Practices and Methicillin-ResistantJournal of chiropractic medicine · 2018Article
- A validation study of the CirCom comorbidity score in an English cirrhosis population using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.Clinical epidemiology · 2018Article
- Personality traits and emotional patterns in irritable bowel syndrome.World journal of gastroenterology · 2016Review
- Personality and Perceived Health in Spousal Caregivers of Patients with Lung Cancer: The Roles of Neuroticism and Extraversion.Journal of aging research · 2016Article
- Article
- A Validation Study of the Mini-IPIP Five-Factor Personality Scale in Adults With Cancer.Journal of personality assessmentArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundPredicting risk of premature death is one of the most basic tasks in medicine and public health, but has proven to be difficult over the long term even with the best prognostic models. One popular strategy has been to improve prognostic models with candidate genes and other novel biomarkers. However, the gains in predictive power have been modest and the costs have been high, leading to a demand for cost-effective alternatives. We conducted a proof-of-principle investigation to examine whether simple, cheap, and noninvasive paper-and-pencil measures of social class and personality phenotype could improve the performance of one of the most widely used prediction models for all-cause mortality, the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI).
methodsWe used data from baseline and 25-year mortality follow-up of the UK Health and Lifestyle Study cohort. In a subset of the cohort, we first identified 5 psychosocial factors highly predictive of mortality: income, education, type A personality, communalism (preference for the company of others), and "lie" scale (a measure of denial, putatively associated with ill health). We then examined the predictive performance of the CCI with and without these measures in a validation subsample.
resultsAcross 5-, 10-, 15-, 20-, and 25-year time horizons, the psychosocially augmented CCI showed substantially better discrimination [area under the receiver-operating curves (95% confidence interval) from 0.83 (0.81-0.85) to 0.84 (0.83-0.86)] than the CCI [area under the receiver-operating curves from 0.74 (0.71-0.76) to 0.77 (0.76-0.79)]. These translated into net reclassification improvements from 27% (23%-31%) to 35% (32%-38%) of survivors and from 23% (17%-30%) to 34% (17%-30%) of decedents; and 23%-42% reductions in the Number Needed to Screen. Calibration improved at all time horizons except 25 years, where it was decreased.
conclusionWidespread attempts to improve prognostic models might consider not only novel biomarkers, but also psychosocial questionnaire measures.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.