ArticleScientific reports2015
The determinant of periodicity in Mycoplasma pneumoniae incidence: an insight from mathematical modelling.
Article in Scientific reports, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
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- Complex multiannual cycles ofProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Cold Agglutinin Syndrome Secondary to Mycoplasma pneumoniae Infection in Adults: Results From a Large French Observational Study (MyCOLD Study).American journal of hematology · 2025Observational
- Mycoplasma pneumoniae Infections in Hospitalized Children - United States, 2018-2024.MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report · 2025Article
- Trends inMicrobiology spectrum · 2025Article
- Comparison of the epidemiological characteristics of mycoplasma pneumoniae infections among children during two epidemics in Wuhan from 2018 to 2024.BMC pediatrics · 2025Article
- Resurgence of common respiratory viruses and mycoplasma pneumoniae after ending the zero-COVID policy in Shanghai.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Evaluating the effectiveness of different intervention measures for an outbreak of mycoplasma pneumoniae in hangzhou based on a dynamic model.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Clinical characteristics and logistic regression analysis of macrolide-resistant Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia in children.European journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology · 2024Article
- Molecular epidemiology of Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia in children, Wuhan, 2020-2022.BMC microbiology · 2024Article
- Increased incidence ofEuro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2024Article
- Asthma incidence can be influenced by climate change in Italy: findings from the GEIRD study-a climatological and epidemiological assessment.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the epidemiology of other communicable diseases in Japan.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2023Article
- Molecular Tools for TypingFrontiers in microbiology · 2022Review
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- Causes of severe pneumonia requiring hospital admission in children without HIV infection from Africa and Asia: the PERCH multi-country case-control study.Lancet (London, England) · 2019Article
- Evidence for a link between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and annual asthma mortality rates in the US.Scientific reports · 2019Article
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5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Until the early 1990 s, incidences of Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) infection showed three to five year epidemic cycles in multiple countries, however, the mechanism for the MP epidemic cycle has not been understood. Here, we investigate the determinant of periodicity in MP incidence by employing a mathematical model describing MP transmission dynamics. Three candidates for the determinant of periodicity were evaluated: school-term forcing, minor variance in the duration of immunity, and epidemiological interference between MP serotypes. We find that minor variation in the duration of immunity at the population level must be considered essential for the MP epidemic cycle because the MP cyclic incidence pattern did not replicate without it. Minor variation, in this case, is a less dispersed distribution for the duration of immunity than an exponential distribution. Various lengths of epidemic cycles, including cycles typically found in nature, e.g. three to five year cycles, were also observed when there was minor variance in the duration of immunity. The cyclic incidence pattern is robust even if there is epidemiological interference due to cross-immune protection, which is observed in the epidemiological data as negative correlation between epidemics per MP serotype.
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