ArticleWorld psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)2015
At risk or not at risk? A meta-analysis of the prognostic accuracy of psychometric interviews for psychosis prediction.
Article in World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA), 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 126 papers, 14 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
126 citing papers in PubMed, 14 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Longitudinal change in neurocognitive functioning in children and adolescents at clinical high risk for psychosis: a systematic review.European child & adolescent psychiatry · 2024Pooled it
- Clinical outcomes in individuals at clinical high risk of psychosis who do not transition to psychosis: a meta-analysis.Epidemiology and psychiatric sciences · 2022Pooled it
- Neural correlates of emotional processing in psychosis risk and onset - A systematic review and meta-analysis of fMRI studies.Neuroscience and biobehavioral reviews · 2021Pooled it
- Transition to psychosis in randomized clinical trials of individuals at clinical high risk of psychosis compared to observational cohorts: a systematic review and meta-analysis.European psychiatry : the journal of the Association of European Psychiatrists · 2021Pooled it
- Establishing a clinical service to prevent psychosis: What, how and when? Systematic review.Translational psychiatry · 2021Pooled it
- Traumatic Events, Social Adversity and Discrimination as Risk Factors for Psychosis - An Umbrella Review.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2021Pooled it
- What Causes the Onset of Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk? A Meta-analysis of Risk and Protective Factors.Schizophrenia bulletin · 2020Pooled it
- Individualized Prediction of Transition to Psychosis in 1,676 Individuals at Clinical High Risk: Development and Validation of a Multivariable Prediction Model Based on Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2019Pooled it
- Preventive Treatments for Psychosis: Umbrella Review (Just the Evidence).Frontiers in psychiatry · 2019Pooled it
- Can We Reduce the Duration of Untreated Psychosis? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Controlled Interventional Studies.Schizophrenia bulletin · 2018Pooled it
- Can We Predict Psychosis Outside the Clinical High-Risk State? A Systematic Review of Non-Psychotic Risk Syndromes for Mental Disorders.Schizophrenia bulletin · 2018Pooled it
- Improving Prognostic Accuracy in Subjects at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: Systematic Review of Predictive Models and Meta-analytical Sequential Testing Simulation.Schizophrenia bulletin · 2017Pooled it
- The Dark Side of the Moon: Meta-analytical Impact of Recruitment Strategies on Risk Enrichment in the Clinical High Risk State for Psychosis.Schizophrenia bulletin · 2016Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Identification and predictive analysis for participants at ultra-high risk of psychosis: A comparison of three psychometric diagnostic interviews.World journal of clinical cases · 2022Trial
- Trial
- Article
- Predicting long-term poor outcomes in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis using real-world clinical data: the OASIS1000 prospective study.World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA) · 2026Article
- Social Determinants and Mental Health Care Utilization Among Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis.Psychiatric services (Washington, D.C.) · 2026Article
- Do Obsessive-Compulsive Symptoms Increase the Risk of Developing Psychosis? A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.Schizophrenia bulletin open · 2026Article
66 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
15 authors.
Funding
Abstract
An accurate detection of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis is a prerequisite for effective preventive interventions. Several psychometric interviews are available, but their prognostic accuracy is unknown. We conducted a prognostic accuracy meta-analysis of psychometric interviews used to examine referrals to high risk services. The index test was an established CHR psychometric instrument used to identify subjects with and without CHR (CHR+ and CHR-). The reference index was psychosis onset over time in both CHR+ and CHR- subjects. Data were analyzed with MIDAS (STATA13). Area under the curve (AUC), summary receiver operating characteristic curves, quality assessment, likelihood ratios, Fagan's nomogram and probability modified plots were computed. Eleven independent studies were included, with a total of 2,519 help-seeking, predominately adult subjects (CHR+: N=1,359; CHR-: N=1,160) referred to high risk services. The mean follow-up duration was 38 months. The AUC was excellent (0.90; 95% CI: 0.87-0.93), and comparable to other tests in preventive medicine, suggesting clinical utility in subjects referred to high risk services. Meta-regression analyses revealed an effect for exposure to antipsychotics and no effects for type of instrument, age, gender, follow-up time, sample size, quality assessment, proportion of CHR+ subjects in the total sample. Fagan's nomogram indicated a low positive predictive value (5.74%) in the general non-help-seeking population. Albeit the clear need to further improve prediction of psychosis, these findings support the use of psychometric prognostic interviews for CHR as clinical tools for an indicated prevention in subjects seeking help at high risk services worldwide.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.