Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26391036›Full record

ArticleOsteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA2016

FRAX predicts incident falls in elderly men: findings from MrOs Sweden.

N C Harvey, H Johansson, A Odén, M K Karlsson, B E Rosengren, Ö Ljunggren, C Cooper, E McCloskey, J A Kanis, C Ohlsson and 1 more

Abstract readMulticenter Study
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
31citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

31 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Sarcopenia Definitions as Predictors of Fracture Risk Independent of FRAXJournal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research · 2021
    Pooled it
  2. European guidance for the diagnosis and management of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2019
    Guideline
  3. Pooled it
  4. Falls Predict Fractures Independently of FRAX Probability: A Meta-Analysis of the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study.Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research · 2018
    Pooled it
  5. Clinical guidelines for the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis: summary statements and recommendations from the Italian Society for Orthopaedics and Traumatology.Journal of orthopaedics and traumatology : official journal of the Italian Society of Orthopaedics and Traumatology · 2017
    Guideline
  6. Pooled it
  7. Menopausal hormone therapy reduces the risk of fracture regardless of falls risk or baseline FRAX probability-results from the Women's Health Initiative hormone therapy trials.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2022
    Trial
  8. Trial
  9. Fracture probability is predictive of fall-associated hospitalization: the Manitoba BMD Registry.Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research · 2026
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Review
  12. Observational
  13. Observational
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  18. Determinants of imminent fracture risk in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2020
    Article
  19. FRAX score and recent fall history predict the incidence for sarcopenia in community-dwelling older adults: a prospective cohort study.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2020
    Article
  20. Screening for high hip fracture risk does not impact on falls risk: a post hoc analysis from the SCOOP study.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2020
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

N C HarveyMRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO16 6YD, UK.
H JohanssonCentre for Bone and Arthritis Research (CBAR), Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
A OdénCentre for Bone and Arthritis Research (CBAR), Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
M K KarlssonClinical and Molecular Osteoporosis Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences Malmo, Lund University, Malmo, Sweden.
B E RosengrenClinical and Molecular Osteoporosis Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences Malmo, Lund University, Malmo, Sweden.
Ö LjunggrenDepartment of Medical Sciences, University of Uppsala, Uppsala, Sweden.
C CooperMRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO16 6YD, UK.
E McCloskeyCentre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK.
J A KanisCentre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK. w.j.pontefract@sheffield.ac.uk.
C OhlssonCentre for Bone and Arthritis Research (CBAR), Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
D MellströmCentre for Bone and Arthritis Research (CBAR), Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.

Funding

Medical Research Council G0400491Medical Research Council MC_U147585819Medical Research Council MC_U147585824Medical Research Council MC_U147585827Medical Research Council MR/K006312/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

unlabelledFalls and fractures share several common risk factors. Although past falls is not included as an input variable in the FRAX calculator, we demonstrate that FRAX probability predicts risk of incident falls in the MrOs Sweden cohort.

introductionAlthough not included in the FRAX® algorithm, it is possible that increased falls risk is partly dependent on other risk factors that are incorporated into FRAX. The aim of the present study was to determine whether fracture probability generated by FRAX might also predict risk of incident falls and the extent that a falls history would add value to FRAX.

methodsWe studied the relationship between FRAX probabilities and risk of falls in 1836 elderly men recruited to the MrOS study, a population-based prospective cohort of men from Sweden. Baseline data included falls history, clinical risk factors, bone mineral density (BMD) at femoral neck, and calculated FRAX probabilities. Incident falls were captured during an average of 1.8 years of follow-up. An extension of Poisson regression was used to investigate the relationship between FRAX, other risk variables, and the time-to-event hazard function of falls. All associations were adjusted for age and time since baseline.

resultsAt enrolment, 15.5 % of the men had fallen during the preceding 12 months (past falls) and 39 % experienced one or more falls during follow-up (incident falls). The risk of incident falls increased with increasing FRAX probabilities at baseline (hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD), 1.16; 95 % confidence interval (95%CI), 1.06 to 1.26). The association between incident falls and FRAX probability remained after adjustment for past falls (HR per SD, 1.12; 95%CI, 1.03 to 1.22). High compared with low baseline FRAX score (>15 vs <15 % probability of major osteoporotic fracture) was strongly predictive of increased falls risk (HR, 1.64; 95%CI, 1.36 to 1.97) and remained stable with time. Whereas past falls were a significant predictor of incident falls (HR, 2.75; 95%CI, 2.32 to 3.25), even after adjustment for FRAX, the hazard ratio decreased markedly with increasing follow-up time.

conclusionsAlthough falls are not included as an input variable, FRAX captures a component of risk for future falls and outperforms falls history with an extended follow-up time.

Indexed as

Accidental FallsAgedAged, 80 and overAge FactorsBone DensityFemur NeckFollow-Up StudiesHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedOsteoporotic FracturesProspective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsSwedenEpidemiologyFallsFractureFRAXOsteoporosis

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.