Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26359666›Full record

ArticlePloS one2015

Was the Risk from Nursing-Home Evacuation after the Fukushima Accident Higher than the Radiation Risk?

Michio Murakami, Kyoko Ono, Masaharu Tsubokura, Shuhei Nomura, Tomoyoshi Oikawa, Tosihiro Oka, Masahiro Kami, Taikan Oki

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Guideline
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Winter Storm Uri Reduced Availability of Daily Direct-Care Nurse Staff in Texas Nursing Homes.Journal of applied gerontology : the official journal of the Southern Gerontological Society · 2023
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Evacuation from Healthcare Facilities in Poland: Legal Preparedness and Preparation.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Review
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Michio MurakamiInstitute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro, Tokyo, 153-8505, Japan.
Kyoko OnoResearch Institute of Science for Safety and Sustainability, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), 16-1, Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8569, Japan.
Masaharu TsubokuraDivision of Social Communication System for Advanced Clinical Research, The Institute of Medical Science, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1, Shirokanedai, Minato, Tokyo, 108-8639, Japan.
Shuhei NomuraDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom.
Tomoyoshi OikawaDepartment of Radiation Protection, Minamisoma Municipal General Hospital, 2-54-6 Takami, Haramachi, Minamisoma, Fukushima, 975-0033, Japan.
Tosihiro OkaFaculty of Economics, Fukui Prefectural University, 4-1-1, Matsuoka-Kenjojima, Eiheiji-Town, Yoshida County, Fukui, 910-1195, Japan.
Masahiro KamiDivision of Social Communication System for Advanced Clinical Research, The Institute of Medical Science, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1, Shirokanedai, Minato, Tokyo, 108-8639, Japan.
Taikan OkiInstitute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro, Tokyo, 153-8505, Japan.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

After the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, nursing-home residents and staff were evacuated voluntarily from damaged areas to avoid radiation exposure. Unfortunately, the evacuation resulted in increased mortalities among nursing home residents. We assessed the risk trade-off between evacuation and radiation for 191 residents and 184 staff at three nursing homes by using the same detriment indicator, namely loss of life expectancy (LLE), under four scenarios, i.e. "rapid evacuation (in accordance with the actual situation; i.e. evacuation on 22 March)," "deliberate evacuation (i.e. evacuation on 20 June)," "20-mSv exposure," and "100-mSv exposure." The LLE from evacuation-related mortality among nursing home residents was assessed with survival probability data from nursing homes in the city of Minamisoma and the city of Soma. The LLE from radiation mortality was calculated from the estimated age-specific mortality rates from leukemia and all solid cancers based on the additional effective doses and the survival probabilities. The total LLE of residents due to evacuation-related risks in rapid evacuation was 11,000 persons-d-much higher than the total LLEs of residents and staff due to radiation in the other scenarios (27, 1100, and 5800 persons-d for deliberate evacuation, 20 mSv-exposure, and 100 mSv-exposure, respectively). The latitude for reducing evacuation risks among nursing home residents is surprisingly large. Evacuation regulation and planning should therefore be well balanced with the trade-offs against radiation risks. This is the first quantitative assessment of the risk trade-off between radiation exposure and evacuation after a nuclear power plant accident.

Indexed as

Fukushima Nuclear AccidentNursing HomesRescue WorkAdultAgedAged, 80 and overCause of DeathFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedMortalityNeoplasmsRadiation ExposureRisk

Identifiers

PMID26359666
PMCPMC4567272

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.