ArticleNature communications2015
Defining the relationship between infection prevalence and clinical incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria.
Article in Nature communications, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 58 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
58 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 95 citations in OpenAlex.
- A systematic review of changing malaria disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa since 2000: comparing model predictions and empirical observations.BMC medicine · 2020Pooled it
- The contribution of non-malarial febrile illness co-infections to Plasmodium falciparum case counts in health facilities in sub-Saharan Africa.Malaria journal · 2019Pooled it
- Agent-based models of malaria transmission: a systematic review.Malaria journal · 2018Pooled it
- Lessons from a decade of individual-based models for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review (2006-2015).BMC infectious diseases · 2017Pooled it
- Trial
- Where and why malaria persists in heterogeneous transmission settings: insights from routine health facility data.BMJ global health · 2026Article
- Estimating probabilities of malaria importation in southern Mozambique through modellingeLife · 2026Article
- Impact of a one-year interruption to vector control on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Article
- Malaria: a review on its current epidemiological status and management strategies.Malaria journal · 2026Review
- Spatial-temporal risk of Opisthorchis felineus infection in Western Siberia and the Ural Region of Russian Federation: a joint Bayesian modelling study based on survey and surveillance data.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2025Article
- Mapping the global prevalence, incidence, and mortality of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria, 2000-22: a spatial and temporal modelling study.Lancet (London, England) · 2025Article
- Misclassification of malaria as pneumonia in children in sub-Saharan Africa.International journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Bridging the Gap from Molecular Surveillance to Programmatic Decisions for Malaria Control and Elimination.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2025Review
- Considerations for first field trials of low-threshold gene drive for malaria vector control.Malaria journal · 2024Review
- Measuring protective efficacy and quantifying the impact of drug resistance: A novel malaria chemoprevention trial design and methodology.PLoS medicine · 2024Article
- Applying a zero-corrected, gravity model estimator reduces bias due to heterogeneity in healthcare utilization in community-scale, passive surveillance datasets of endemic diseases.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Mapping malaria incidence using routine health facility surveillance data in Uganda.BMJ global health · 2023Article
- Evaluating COVID-19-Related Disruptions to Effective Malaria Case Management in 2020-2021 and Its Potential Effects on Malaria Burden in Sub-Saharan Africa.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
- Projected health impact of post-discharge malaria chemoprevention among children with severe malarial anaemia in Africa.Nature communications · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
15 authors at 5 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
In many countries health system data remain too weak to accurately enumerate Plasmodium falciparum malaria cases. In response, cartographic approaches have been developed that link maps of infection prevalence with mathematical relationships to predict the incidence rate of clinical malaria. Microsimulation (or 'agent-based') models represent a powerful new paradigm for defining such relationships; however, differences in model structure and calibration data mean that no consensus yet exists on the optimal form for use in disease-burden estimation. Here we develop a Bayesian statistical procedure combining functional regression-based model emulation with Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to calibrate three selected microsimulation models against a purpose-built data set of age-structured prevalence and incidence counts. This allows the generation of ensemble forecasts of the prevalence-incidence relationship stratified by age, transmission seasonality, treatment level and exposure history, from which we predict accelerating returns on investments in large-scale intervention campaigns as transmission and prevalence are progressively reduced.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.