Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26334714›Full record

ArticlePreventing chronic disease2015

Development of a Clinical Forecasting Model to Predict Comorbid Depression Among Diabetes Patients and an Application in Depression Screening Policy Making.

Haomiao Jin, Shinyi Wu, Paul Di Capua

Open access · diamondAbstract readComparative Study
In one paragraph

Article in Preventing chronic disease, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
28citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
2.4field-weighted citation impact, top 12% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 53 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Haomiao JinDaniel J. Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Southern California, 3715 McClintock Avenue, Suite 240, Los Angeles, CA 90089. Email: haomiaoj@usc.edu.
Shinyi WuUniversity of Southern California and RAND Corporation, Los Angeles, California.
Paul Di CapuaUniversity of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California.
University of California, Los Angeles · US

Funding

Multifaceted Depression Diabetes Program for HispanicsR01MH068468 · NIMH · UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA · PI ELL, KATHLEEN R · 2005 to 2008
$3.1M
ASPE HHS 1R18AE000054-01NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH068468
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionDepression is a common but often undiagnosed comorbid condition of people with diabetes. Mass screening can detect undiagnosed depression but may require significant resources and time. The objectives of this study were 1) to develop a clinical forecasting model that predicts comorbid depression among patients with diabetes and 2) to evaluate a model-based screening policy that saves resources and time by screening only patients considered as depressed by the clinical forecasting model.

methodsWe trained and validated 4 machine learning models by using data from 2 safety-net clinical trials; we chose the one with the best overall predictive ability as the ultimate model. We compared model-based policy with alternative policies, including mass screening and partial screening, on the basis of depression history or diabetes severity.

resultsLogistic regression had the best overall predictive ability of the 4 models evaluated and was chosen as the ultimate forecasting model. Compared with mass screening, the model-based policy can save approximately 50% to 60% of provider resources and time but will miss identifying about 30% of patients with depression. Partial-screening policy based on depression history alone found only a low rate of depression. Two other heuristic-based partial screening policies identified depression at rates similar to those of the model-based policy but cost more in resources and time.

conclusionThe depression prediction model developed in this study has compelling predictive ability. By adopting the model-based depression screening policy, health care providers can use their resources and time better and increase their efficiency in managing their patients with depression.

Indexed as

Health PolicyArtificial IntelligenceComorbidityComparative Effectiveness ResearchDecision Support TechniquesDelivery of Health Care, IntegratedDepressive DisorderDiabetes ComplicationsDiabetes MellitusDiagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental DisordersFemaleForecastingHumansLogistic ModelsMaleMass Screening

Identifiers

PMID26334714
PMCPMC4561536
OpenAlexW1845587167

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.