SynthesisPloS one2015
Current Developments in Dementia Risk Prediction Modelling: An Updated Systematic Review.
Synthesis in PloS one, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 101 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
101 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 179 citations in OpenAlex.
- Discriminative performance of externally validated dementia risk prediction models: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC medicine · 2026Pooled it
- Multi-domain prognostic models used in middle-aged adults without known cognitive impairment for predicting subsequent dementia.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2023Pooled it
- External validation of four dementia prediction models for use in the general community-dwelling population: a comparative analysis from the Rotterdam Study.European journal of epidemiology · 2018Pooled it
- Longitudinal Effect of Stroke on Cognition: A Systematic Review.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2018Pooled it
- Development and validation of the dialysis dementia risk score: A retrospective, population-based, nested case-control study.European journal of neurology · 2022Trial
- Quantifying dementia prevention potential in the FINGER randomized controlled trial using the LIBRA prevention index.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2021Trial
- Effect of a Multidomain Lifestyle Intervention on Estimated Dementia Risk.Journal of Alzheimer's disease : JAD · 2021Trial
- CogStrat: web-based tools for predicting incident cognitive impairment in cognitively normal older adults.Journal of neural transmission (Vienna, Austria : 1996) · 2026Article
- Imaging-genetics-based dementia risk prediction using deep survival neural networks in the Rotterdam Study.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- External validation of dementia risk prediction models in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort: a UK-based cohort study.NPJ dementia · 2026Article
- FDG-PET brain glucose hypometabolism predicts Alzheimer's disease progression pathways in cognitively normal adults: A longitudinal competing risks modeling.Metabolism open · 2025Article
- Clinical prediction rules for cognitive outcomes post-stroke: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis.EClinicalMedicine · 2025Article
- Imaging-genetics-based dementia risk prediction using deep survival neural networks in the Rotterdam Study.Research square · 2025Article
- Article
- Dynamic lifetime risk prediction of Alzheimer's disease with longitudinal cognitive assessment measurements.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2025Article
- Individualized, cross-validated prediction of future dementia using cognitive assessments in people with mild cognitive symptoms.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2024Article
- Disease-Specific Risk Models for Predicting Dementia: An Umbrella Review.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Review
- External validation of dementia prediction models in Black or African American and White older adults: A longitudinal population-based study in the United States.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2024Article
- Comparison of subjective cognitive decline and polygenic risk score in the prediction of all-cause dementia, Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia.Alzheimer's research & therapy · 2024Article
- Development and validation of a patient-level model to predict dementia across a network of observational databases.BMC medicine · 2024Article
41 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
11 authors at 7 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundAccurate identification of individuals at high risk of dementia influences clinical care, inclusion criteria for clinical trials and development of preventative strategies. Numerous models have been developed for predicting dementia. To evaluate these models we undertook a systematic review in 2010 and updated this in 2014 due to the increase in research published in this area. Here we include a critique of the variables selected for inclusion and an assessment of model prognostic performance.
methodsOur previous systematic review was updated with a search from January 2009 to March 2014 in electronic databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science). Articles examining risk of dementia in non-demented individuals and including measures of sensitivity, specificity or the area under the curve (AUC) or c-statistic were included.
findingsIn total, 1,234 articles were identified from the search; 21 articles met inclusion criteria. New developments in dementia risk prediction include the testing of non-APOE genes, use of non-traditional dementia risk factors, incorporation of diet, physical function and ethnicity, and model development in specific subgroups of the population including individuals with diabetes and those with different educational levels. Four models have been externally validated. Three studies considered time or cost implications of computing the model.
interpretationThere is no one model that is recommended for dementia risk prediction in population-based settings. Further, it is unlikely that one model will fit all. Consideration of the optimal features of new models should focus on methodology (setting/sample, model development and testing in a replication cohort) and the acceptability and cost of attaining the risk variables included in the prediction score. Further work is required to validate existing models or develop new ones in different populations as well as determine the ethical implications of dementia risk prediction, before applying the particular models in population or clinical settings.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.