ArticleJournal of epidemiology and global health2015
Seasonality and trend analysis of tuberculosis in Lahore, Pakistan from 2006 to 2013.
Article in Journal of epidemiology and global health, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
31 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 62 citations in OpenAlex.
- Understanding the mechanisms of climate change impact on tuberculosis: a complex systems approach.BMC public health · 2025Pooled it
- COVID-19 disruptions and spring surges: an interrupted time-series analysis of tuberculosis diagnostic challenges in Northeast Iran.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal patterns of tuberculosis in urban slums and urban-rural transition zones: evidence from Tétouan, Morocco, 2019-2023.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Machine learning identifies environmental drivers of pulmonary tuberculosis in Xinjiang a typical arid region of China.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Health system and environmental factors affecting global progress towards achieving End TB targets between 2015 and 2020.Journal of global health · 2025Article
- An investigation of the effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of tuberculosis.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Spatiotemporal and seasonality analysis of sheep and goat pox (SGP) disease outbreaks in Turkey between 2010 and 2019.Tropical animal health and production · 2023Article
- Spatio-temporal distribution of tuberculosis and the effects of environmental factors in China.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- A scoping review on climate change and tuberculosis.International journal of biometeorology · 2021Article
- Analysis of spatial-temporal distribution of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in Shandong Province, China during 2005-2014.BMC public health · 2021Article
- The association between extreme temperature and pulmonary tuberculosis in Shandong Province, China, 2005-2016: a mixed method evaluation.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Seasonality in extra-pulmonary tuberculosis notifications in Germany 2004-2014- a time series analysis.BMC public health · 2021Article
- The relationship between seasonality, latitude and tuberculosis notifications in Pakistan.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
- The Relationship Between Socio-Demographic Factors and Tuberculosis Mortality in the Republic of Korea During 2008-2017.Frontiers in public health · 2021Article
- Temperature and humidity associated with increases in tuberculosis notifications: a time-series study in Hong Kong.Epidemiology and infection · 2020Article
- Analysis and predication of tuberculosis registration rates in Henan Province, China: an exponential smoothing model study.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2020Article
- Notifiable Respiratory Infectious Diseases in China: A Spatial-Temporal Epidemiology Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Does sunlight drive seasonality of TB in Vietnam? A retrospective environmental ecological study of tuberculosis seasonality in Vietnam from 2010 to 2015.BMC infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Nonrenewable energy-environmental and health effects on human capital: empirical evidence from Pakistan.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2020Article
- Trend Analysis And Seasonality Of Tuberculosis Among Patients At The Hiwot Fana Specialized University Hospital, Eastern Ethiopia: A Retrospective Study.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Tuberculosis (TB) is a respiratory infectious disease which shows seasonality. Seasonal variation in TB notifications has been reported in different regions, suggesting that various geographic and demographic factors are involved in seasonality. The study was designed to find out the temporal and seasonal pattern of TB incidence in Lahore, Pakistan from 2006 to 2013 in newly diagnosed pulmonary TB cases. SPSS version 21 software was used for correlation to determine the temporal relationship and time series analysis for seasonal variation. Temperature was found to be significantly associated with TB incidence at the 0.01 level with p=0.006 and r=0.477. Autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function showed a significant peak at lag 4 suggesting a seasonal component of the TB series. Seasonal adjusted factor showed peak seasonal variation in the second quarter (April-June). The expert modeler predicted the Holt-Winter's additive model as the best fit model for the time series, which exhibits a linear trend with constant (additive) seasonal variations, and the stationary R(2) value was found to be 0.693. The forecast shows a declining trend with seasonality. A significant temporal relation with a seasonal pattern and declining trend with variable amplitudes of fluctuation was observed in the incidence of TB.
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