ArticleScience (New York, N.Y.)2015
PSYCHOLOGY. Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science.
Article in Science (New York, N.Y.), 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1,727 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1,727 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Brain Association Studies in 2024: A Systematic Review of Sample Sizes and Preregistrations.Psychophysiology · 2026Pooled it
- On the (limited) use of touchscreen-based behavioural and cognitive research with dogs: potential causes and future directions.Animal cognition · 2026Pooled it
- Bridging the gap between evidence and clinical practice for migraine headaches: a systematic review (2019-2024).The journal of headache and pain · 2025Pooled it
- Structural Brain Differences in the Alzheimer's Disease Continuum: Insights Into the Heterogeneity From a Large Multisite Neuroimaging Consortium.Biological psychiatry. Cognitive neuroscience and neuroimaging · 2025Pooled it
- Unpacking the components of positive affect variability: Implications for psychological health across contexts.Emotion (Washington, D.C.) · 2025Pooled it
- Using a volitional help sheet to increase university students' attendance at on-campus lectures: A randomized controlled trial.The British journal of educational psychology · 2026Trial
- The same, only different: Smartphone-based dietary Ecological Momentary Assessment tools vary in complexity, usability and active information processing.British journal of health psychology · 2026Trial
- The Effects of Repeated Finger Flexion Movements on Self-Reported Affect and Reward System Activation Are Weak and Inconsistent.Journal of clinical psychology · 2025Trial
- Investigating the effects of single-dose intranasal testosterone on economic preferences in a large randomized trial of men.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Trial
- Reproducibility of social science research using aggregate statistics with noise infused for differential privacy.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Evaluation of methodology, reporting and transparency of 50 highly cited randomised trials in neurology: a cross-sectional analysis.BMJ open · 2026Article
- Patients might distrust honest doctors.Journal of hospital medicine · 2026Article
- Attention and social problems are uniquely associated with academic achievement beyond overall psychopathology: multicohort replication in 3,800 participants.Journal of child psychology and psychiatry, and allied disciplines · 2026Article
- Multilaboratory, Blinded, Randomized Trial of Five Cerebroprotectants in Ischemic Stroke.Circulation research · 2026Article
- Replicating motivational and cognitive-motivational typologies of doping attitudes among recreational fitness athletes: implications for harm reduction and risk communication.Harm reduction journal · 2026Article
- A Replication and Extension of Three Studies Investigating Escalation of Commitment and Regret Aversion.Personality & social psychology bulletin · 2026Article
- The Uptake of Preregistration, and Its Impact on the Proportion of Supported Hypotheses, in Sports Science.Sports medicine (Auckland, N.Z.) · 2026Article
- Refined trial sequential analysis for meta-analyses with few studies.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics · 2026Article
- Distal outcomes in mixture modeling: A guide for pairwise comparisons, multiplicity control, and effect size reporting.Behavior research methods · 2026Article
- Article
1,667 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
- Commented on by
- Commented on by
- Commented on by
- Commented on by
- Commented on by
- Commented on by
Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
Abstract
Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
Indexed as
Identifiers
26315443What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.