ArticleParasites & vectors2015
Predicting potential ranges of primary malaria vectors and malaria in northern South America based on projected changes in climate, land cover and human population.
Article in Parasites & vectors, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Impact of climate change on occupational health and productivity: a systematic literature review focusing on workplace heat.La Medicina del lavoro · 2018Pooled it
- Does deforestation promote or inhibit malaria transmission in the Amazon? A systematic literature review and critical appraisal of current evidence.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2017Pooled it
- Exploratory analysis of the correlation between precipitation and storms and malaria cases from national surveillance in Mozambique.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Climate change and tropical medicine in the Amazon: contributions from a research center, gaps and future priorities.Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical · 2026Review
- A malaria seasonality dataset for sub-Saharan Africa.Scientific data · 2025Article
- The impact of weather and extreme events on malaria transmission in the Brazilian Amazon: a case-crossover and population-based study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2025Article
- Range dynamics ofEcology and evolution · 2024Article
- Long-lasting household damage from Cyclone Idai increases malaria risk in rural western Mozambique.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Time lag effect on malaria transmission dynamics in an Amazonian Colombian municipality and importance for early warning systems.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Malaria Risk Drivers in the Brazilian Amazon: Land Use-Land Cover Interactions and Biological Diversity.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Modeling the Effect of Climate Change on the Distribution of Main Malaria Vectors in an Endemic Area, Southeastern Iran.Iranian journal of public health · 2023Article
- A new gecko from the earliest Eocene of Dormaal, Belgium: a thermophilic element of the 'greenhouse world'.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- Predicting the Potential Distribution of Major Malaria Vectors Based on Climate Changes in Sistan and Baluchistan Province, Southeastern Iran.Journal of arthropod-borne diseases · 2021Article
- Modeling the Potential Distribution of the Malaria VectorFrontiers in public health · 2021Article
- Natural malaria infection in anophelines vectors and their incrimination in local malaria transmission in Darién, Panama.PloS one · 2021Article
- Time-Varying Effects of Meteorological Variables on Malaria Epidemiology in the Context of Interrupted Control Efforts in the Amazon Rainforest, 2000-2017.Frontiers in medicine · 2021Article
- Intersecting vulnerabilities: climatic and demographic contributions to future population exposure toEnvironmental research letters : ERL [Web site] · 2020Article
- Leveraging big data for public health: Mapping malaria vector suitability in Malawi with Google Earth Engine.PloS one · 2020Article
- Forecasting Zoonotic Infectious Disease Response to Climate Change: Mosquito Vectors and a Changing Environment.Veterinary sciences · 2019Review
- Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundChanges in land use and land cover (LULC) as well as climate are likely to affect the geographic distribution of malaria vectors and parasites in the coming decades. At present, malaria transmission is concentrated mainly in the Amazon basin where extensive agriculture, mining, and logging activities have resulted in changes to local and regional hydrology, massive loss of forest cover, and increased contact between malaria vectors and hosts.
methodsEmploying presence-only records, bioclimatic, topographic, hydrologic, LULC and human population data, we modeled the distribution of malaria and two of its dominant vectors, Anopheles darlingi, and Anopheles nuneztovari s.l. in northern South America using the species distribution modeling platform Maxent.
resultsResults from our land change modeling indicate that about 70,000 km(2) of forest land would be lost by 2050 and 78,000 km(2) by 2070 compared to 2010. The Maxent model predicted zones of relatively high habitat suitability for malaria and the vectors mainly within the Amazon and along coastlines. While areas with malaria are expected to decrease in line with current downward trends, both vectors are predicted to experience range expansions in the future. Elevation, annual precipitation and temperature were influential in all models both current and future. Human population mostly affected An. darlingi distribution while LULC changes influenced An. nuneztovari s.l. distribution.
conclusionAs the region tackles the challenge of malaria elimination, investigations such as this could be useful for planning and management purposes and aid in predicting and addressing potential impediments to elimination.
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