ArticlePloS one2015
A Century of Tuberculosis Epidemiology in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere: The Differential Impact of Control Interventions.
Article in PloS one, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed.
- Sociological variety and the transmission efficiency ofBMJ open · 2021Trial
- Current perspective on infectious uveitis.Indian journal of ophthalmology · 2026Review
- Tuberculosis and tuberculosis-human immunodeficiency virus in post-conflict West Africa: Lessons for integrated surveillance from 2000 to 2022.Journal of public health in Africa · 2026Article
- Strategies for shortening tuberculosis therapy.Nature medicine · 2025Review
- The potential of community-based radiographic screening to end TB in India.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- PersistentiScience · 2024Article
- PersistentmedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Frequency, subtypes distribution, and risk factors ofNew microbes and new infections · 2023Article
- Review
- Use of chest radiography screening for TB: a re-evaluation of the Kolín study.The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease · 2022Article
- Social determinants of the changing tuberculosis prevalence in Việt Nam: Analysis of population-level cross-sectional studies.PLoS medicine · 2022Article
- Novel approach to estimate tuberculosis transmission in primary care clinics in sub-Saharan Africa: protocol of a prospective study.BMJ open · 2020Article
- Pre-detection history of extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2019Article
- The differential impact of HIV and antiretroviral therapy on gender-specific tuberculosis rates.Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH · 2019Article
- Article
- The impact of migration on tuberculosis in the United States.The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease · 2018Review
- Facility infrastructure of primary health services regarding tuberculosis control: a countrywide cross-sectional study.Primary health care research & development · 2018Article
- Environmental and social factors impacting on epidemic and endemic tuberculosis: a modelling analysis.Royal Society open science · 2018Article
- What We Know About Tuberculosis Transmission: An Overview.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2017Review
- Survival Rates among Co-infected Patients with Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Tuberculosis in Tehran, Iran.Iranian journal of public health · 2017Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundCape Town has one of the highest TB burdens of any city in the world. In 1900 the City of Cape Town, New York City and London had high mortality of tuberculosis (TB). Throughout the 20th century contemporaneous public health measures including screening, diagnosis and treatment were implemented in all three settings. Mandatory notification of TB and vital status enabled comparison of disease burden trajectories.
methodsTB mortality, notification and case fatality rates were calculated from 1912 to 2012 using annual TB notifications, TB death certifications and population estimates. Notification rates were stratified by age and in Cape Town by HIV status (from 2009 onwards).
resultsPre-chemotherapy, TB mortality and notification rates declined steadily in New York and London but remained high in Cape Town. Following introduction of combination chemotherapy, mean annual case fatality dropped from 45-60% to below 10% in all three settings. Mortality and notification rates subsequently declined, although Cape Town notifications did not decline as far as those in New York or London and returned to pre-chemotherapy levels by 1980. The proportional contribution of childhood TB diminished in New York and London but remained high in Cape Town. The advent of the Cape Town HIV-epidemic in the 1990s was associated with a further two-fold increase in incidence. In 2012, notification rates among HIV-negatives remained at pre-chemotherapy levels.
conclusionsTB control was achieved in New York and London but failed in Cape Town. The TB disease burden trajectories started diverging before the availability of combination chemotherapy in 1952 and further diverged following the HIV epidemic in 1990. Chemotherapy impacted case fatality but not transmission, evidenced by on-going high childhood TB rates. Currently endemic TB results from high on-going transmission, which has been exacerbated by the HIV epidemic. TB control will require reducing transmission, which is inexorably linked to prevailing socio-economic factors.
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