ArticlemBio2015
The Reemergent 1977 H1N1 Strain and the Gain-of-Function Debate.
Article in mBio, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 40 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
40 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Tracing the origin of Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2): A systematic review and narrative synthesis.Journal of medical virology · 2022Pooled it
- Respiratory pandemic risk in the Anthropocene: A One Health framework and GISRS+ agenda.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Review
- Article
- Influenza strains in focus: global approaches to the diagnosis, treatment, and control of H1N1, H3N2, H7N9, and H9N2.Pathogens and global health · 2025Review
- Epidemiological dynamics of influenza B virus across multiple seasons in Kenya and Uganda inferred from sequence data, 2010-2021.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Recent advances in the influenza virus vaccine landscape: a comprehensive overview of technologies and trials.Clinical microbiology reviews · 2024Review
- The Growing Phenomenon of 'Frozen' Virus Genome Sequences and Their Likely Origin in Research Facility Escapes.Microorganisms · 2024Review
- Post-disappearance scenarios: policy implications following the potential disappearance of B/Yamagata lineage influenza viruses.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2024Article
- The 1978 English boarding school influenza outbreak: where the classic SEIR model fails.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- Artificial intelligence-based prediction of pathogen emergence and evolution in the world of synthetic biology.Microbial biotechnology · 2024Review
- [From the origin of Sars-CoV-2 to dangerous virology/biology].Bulletin de l'Academie nationale de medecine · 2023Article
- What do we know about the origin of COVID-19 three years later?Revista clinica espanola · 2023Review
- [What do we know about the origin of COVID-19 three years later?]Revista clinica espanola · 2023Review
- SARS-CoV-2, aging, and Post-COVID-19 neurodegeneration.Journal of neurochemistry · 2023Review
- The origins of COVID-19 pandemic: A brief overview.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2022Review
- Evolution of Influenza Viruses-Drug Resistance, Treatment Options, and Prospects.International journal of molecular sciences · 2022Review
- Molecular adaptations during viral epidemics.EMBO reports · 2022Review
- The beginning and ending of a respiratory viral pandemic-lessons from the Spanish flu.Microbial biotechnology · 2022Article
- Human seasonal influenza under COVID-19 and the potential consequences of influenza lineage elimination.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Trends in Excess Winter Mortality (EWM) from 1900/01 to 2019/20-Evidence for a Complex System of Multiple Long-Term Trends.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
- Commented on by
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The 1977-1978 influenza epidemic was probably not a natural event, as the genetic sequence of the virus was nearly identical to the sequences of decades-old strains. While there are several hypotheses that could explain its origin, the possibility that the 1977 epidemic resulted from a laboratory accident has recently gained popularity in discussions about the biosafety risks of gain-of-function (GOF) influenza virus research, as an argument for why this research should not be performed. There is now a moratorium in the United States on funding GOF research while the benefits and risks, including the potential for accident, are analyzed. Given the importance of this historical epidemic to ongoing policy debates, we revisit the evidence that the 1977 epidemic was not natural and examine three potential origins: a laboratory accident, a live-vaccine trial escape, or deliberate release as a biological weapon. Based on available evidence, the 1977 strain was indeed too closely matched to decades-old strains to likely be a natural occurrence. While the origin of the outbreak cannot be conclusively determined without additional evidence, there are very plausible alternatives to the laboratory accident hypothesis, diminishing the relevance of the 1977 experience to the modern GOF debate.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.