Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26283418›Full record

ArticleMalaria journal2015

Seasonality in malaria transmission: implications for case-management with long-acting artemisinin combination therapy in sub-Saharan Africa.

Matthew E Cairns, Patrick G T Walker, Lucy C Okell, Jamie T Griffin, Tini Garske, Kwaku Poku Asante, Seth Owusu-Agyei, Diadier Diallo, Alassane Dicko, Badara Cisse and 4 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Malaria journal, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Matthew E CairnsMRC Tropical Epidemiology Group, LSHTM, London, UK. matthew.cairns@lshtm.ac.uk.
Patrick G T WalkerMRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, London, UK. patrick.walker@imperial.ac.uk.
Lucy C OkellMRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, London, UK. lucy.okell@imperial.ac.uk.
Jamie T GriffinMRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, London, UK. jamie.griffin@imperial.ac.uk.
Tini GarskeMRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, London, UK. tini.garske@imperial.ac.uk.
Kwaku Poku AsanteKintampo Health Research Centre, Kintampo, Ghana. kwakupoku.asante@kintampo-hrc.org.
Seth Owusu-AgyeiKintampo Health Research Centre, Kintampo, Ghana. seth.owusu-agyei@kintampo-hrc.org.
Diadier DialloFaculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, LSHTM, London, UK. ddiallo@path.org.
Alassane DickoMalaria Research and Training Centre, Bamako, Mali. adicko@icermali.org.
Badara CisseFaculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, LSHTM, London, UK. badara.cisse@lshtm.ac.uk.
Brian M GreenwoodFaculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, LSHTM, London, UK. brian.greenwood@lshtm.ac.uk.
Daniel ChandramohanFaculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, LSHTM, London, UK. daniel.chandramohan@lshtm.ac.uk.
Azra C GhaniMRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, London, UK. azra.ghani@imperial.ac.uk.
Paul J MilliganMRC Tropical Epidemiology Group, LSHTM, London, UK. paul.milligan@lshtm.ac.uk.

Funding

Medical Research Council G1002284Medical Research Council G1002387Medical Research Council MR/J012394/1Medical Research Council MR/K010174/1Medical Research Council MR/K012126/1Medical Research Council MR/L012189/1NIAID NIH HHS HHSN266200400016C
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundLong-acting artemisinin-based combination therapy (LACT) offers the potential to prevent recurrent malaria attacks in highly exposed children. However, it is not clear where this advantage will be most important, and deployment of these drugs is not rationalized on this basis.

methodsTo understand where post-treatment prophylaxis would be most beneficial, the relationship between seasonality, transmission intensity and the interval between malaria episodes was explored using data from six cohort studies in West Africa and an individual-based malaria transmission model. The total number of recurrent malaria cases per 1000 child-years at risk, and the fraction of the total annual burden that this represents were estimated for sub-Saharan Africa.

resultsIn settings where prevalence is less than 10 %, repeat malaria episodes constitute a small fraction of the total burden, and few repeat episodes occur within the window of protection provided by currently available drugs. However, in higher transmission settings, and particularly in high transmission settings with highly seasonal transmission, repeat malaria becomes increasingly important, with up to 20 % of the total clinical burden in children estimated to be due to repeat episodes within 4 weeks of a prior attack.

conclusionAt a given level of transmission intensity and annual incidence, the concentration of repeat malaria episodes in time, and consequently the protection from LACT is highest in the most seasonal areas. As a result, the degree of seasonality, in addition to the overall intensity of transmission, should be considered by policy makers when deciding between ACT that differ in their duration of post-treatment prophylaxis.

Indexed as

AntimalarialsArtemisininsChildChild, PreschoolCross-Sectional StudiesDrug Therapy, CombinationHumansIncidenceMalariaSeasonsAntimalarialsartemisininArtemisinins

Identifiers

PMID26283418
PMCPMC4539702

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.