ArticleStatistical methods in medical research2017
Unbiased estimation for response adaptive clinical trials.
Article in Statistical methods in medical research, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed.
- Clinical Trial Simulation: Planning With the OCTAVE Framework, Implementation and Validation Principles.Statistics in medicine · 2026Article
- Article
- Point estimation for adaptive trial designs II: Practical considerations and guidance.Statistics in medicine · 2023Review
- Response-adaptive randomization in clinical trials: from myths to practical considerations.Statistical science : a review journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics · 2023Article
- Point estimation for adaptive trial designs I: A methodological review.Statistics in medicine · 2023Review
- Machine learning for determining lateral flow device results for testing of SARS-CoV-2 infection in asymptomatic populations.Cell reports. Medicine · 2022Article
- Should RECOVERY have used response adaptive randomisation? Evidence from a simulation study.BMC medical research methodology · 2022Article
- Response adaptive intervention allocation in stepped-wedge cluster randomized trials.Statistics in medicine · 2022Article
- Some performance considerations when using multi-armed bandit algorithms in the presence of missing data.PloS one · 2022Article
- Post-Contextual-Bandit Inference.Advances in neural information processing systems · 2021Article
- Treatment allocation strategies for umbrella trials in the presence of multiple biomarkers: A comparison of methods.Pharmaceutical statistics · 2021Article
- Evaluating Bayesian adaptive randomization procedures with adaptive clip methods for multi-arm trials.Statistical methods in medical research · 2021Article
- Confidence intervals for policy evaluation in adaptive experiments.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Article
- Adding flexibility to clinical trial designs: an example-based guide to the practical use of adaptive designs.BMC medicine · 2020Article
- Response-adaptive designs for binary responses: How to offer patient benefit while being robust to time trends?Pharmaceutical statistics · 2018Article
- A Bayesian adaptive design for clinical trials in rare diseases.Computational statistics & data analysis · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Bayesian adaptive trials have the defining feature that the probability of randomization to a particular treatment arm can change as information becomes available as to its true worth. However, there is still a general reluctance to implement such designs in many clinical settings. One area of concern is that their frequentist operating characteristics are poor or, at least, poorly understood. We investigate the bias induced in the maximum likelihood estimate of a response probability parameter, p, for binary outcome by the process of adaptive randomization. We discover that it is small in magnitude and, under mild assumptions, can only be negative - causing one's estimate to be closer to zero on average than the truth. A simple unbiased estimator for p is obtained, but it is shown to have a large mean squared error. Two approaches are therefore explored to improve its precision based on inverse probability weighting and Rao-Blackwellization. We illustrate these estimation strategies using two well-known designs from the literature.
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