ArticlePloS one2015
Estimating PMTCT's Impact on Heterosexual HIV Transmission: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis.
Article in PloS one, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 6 citations in OpenAlex.
- A Review of Network Models for HIV Spread.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2025Pooled it
- A modeling framework to inform preexposure prophylaxis initiation and retention scale-up in the context of 'Getting to Zero' initiatives.AIDS (London, England) · 2019Article
- Prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV: a review of the achievements and challenges in Burkina-Faso.HIV/AIDS (Auckland, N.Z.) · 2019Article
- Home testing and counselling to reduce HIV incidence in a generalised epidemic setting: a mathematical modelling analysis.The lancet. HIV · 2016Article
- Estimating the impact of universal antiretroviral therapy for HIV serodiscordant couples through home HIV testing: insights from mathematical models.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2016Article
- Trends in ART Initiation among Men and Non-Pregnant/Non-Breastfeeding Women before and after Option B+ in Southern Malawi.PloS one · 2016Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
introductionPrevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) strategies include combined short-course antiretrovirals during pregnancy (Option A), triple-drug antiretroviral treament (ART) during pregnancy and breastfeeding (Option B), or lifelong ART (Option B+). The WHO also recommends ART for HIV treatment and prevention of sexual transmission of HIV. The impact of PMTCT strategies on prevention of sexual HIV transmission of HIV is not known. We estimated the population-level impact of PMTCT interventions on heterosexual HIV transmission in southwestern Uganda and KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, two regions with different HIV prevalence and fertility rates. MATERIALS AND
methodsWe constructed and validated dynamic, stochastic, network-based HIV transmission models for each region. PMTCT Options A, B, and B+ were simulated over ten years under three scenarios: 1) current ART and PMTCT coverage, 2) current ART and high PMTCT coverage, and 3) high ART and PMTCT coverage. We compared adult HIV incidence after ten years of each intervention to Option A (and current ART) at current coverage.
resultsAt current coverage, Options B and B+ reduced heterosexual HIV incidence by about 5% and 15%, respectively, in both countries. With current ART and high PMTCT coverage, Option B+ reduced HIV incidence by 35% in Uganda and 19% in South Africa, while Option B had smaller, but meaningful, reductions. The greatest reductions in HIV incidence were achieved with high ART and PMTCT coverage. In this scenario, all PMTCT strategies yielded similar results. DISCUSSION: Implementation of Options B/B+ reduces adult HIV incidence, with greater effect (relative to Option A at current levels) in Uganda than South Africa. These results are likely driven by Uganda's higher fertility rates.
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