ArticleeLife2015
Integrating between-host transmission and within-host immunity to analyze the impact of varicella vaccination on zoster.
Article in eLife, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 43 citations in OpenAlex.
- Lessons from a decade of individual-based models for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review (2006-2015).BMC infectious diseases · 2017Pooled it
- Trends and patterns of varicella zoster virus infection in Kilifi: A population-based serosurvey.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Article
- Article
- Identifying optimal vaccination scenarios to reduce varicella zoster virus transmission and reactivation.BMC medicine · 2022Article
- Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Herpes Zoster Vaccination in 50- to 85-Year-Old Immunocompetent Belgian Cohorts: A Comparison between No Vaccination, the Adjuvanted Subunit Vaccine, and Live-Attenuated Vaccine.PharmacoEconomics · 2022Article
- Epidemiological Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Varicella Vaccination Strategies in the United Kingdom.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
- Risk of herpes zoster after exposure to varicella to explore the exogenous boosting hypothesis: self controlled case series study using UK electronic healthcare data.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2020Observational
- The impact of childhood varicella vaccination on the incidence of herpes zoster in the general population: modelling the effect of exogenous and endogenous varicella-zoster virus immunity boosting.BMC infectious diseases · 2019Article
- Recurrence Rate of Herpes Zoster and Its Risk Factors: a Population-based Cohort Study.Journal of Korean medical science · 2019Article
- Evaluation of the effect of chickenpox vaccination on shingles epidemiology using agent-based modeling.PeerJ · 2018Article
- Varicella vaccination - the global experience.Expert review of vaccines · 2017Review
- Multidisciplinary study of the secondary immune response in grandparents re-exposed to chickenpox.Scientific reports · 2017Article
- Article
- Current and future effects of varicella and herpes zoster vaccination in Germany - Insights from a mathematical model in a country with universal varicella vaccination.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2016Article
- Extensive CD4 and CD8 T Cell Cross-Reactivity between Alphaherpesviruses.Journal of immunology (Baltimore, Md. : 1950) · 2016Article
- The 'Dynamic' Marriage Between Varicella and Zoster.EBioMedicine · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors at 1 institution in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Varicella-zoster virus (VZV) causes chickenpox and reactivation of latent VZV causes herpes zoster (HZ). VZV reactivation is subject to the opposing mechanisms of declining and boosted VZV-specific cellular mediated immunity (CMI). A reduction in exogenous re-exposure 'opportunities' through universal chickenpox vaccination could therefore lead to an increase in HZ incidence. We present the first individual-based model that integrates within-host data on VZV-CMI and between-host transmission data to simulate HZ incidence. This model allows estimating currently unknown pivotal biomedical parameters, including the duration of exogenous boosting at 2 years, with a peak threefold to fourfold increase of VZV-CMI; the VZV weekly reactivation probability at 5% and VZV subclinical reactivation having no effect on VZV-CMI. A 100% effective chickenpox vaccine given to 1 year olds would cause a 1.75 times peak increase in HZ 31 years after implementation. This increase is predicted to occur mainly in younger age groups than is currently assumed.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.