ArticleAnnals of internal medicine2015
Derivation and Validation of a Scoring System to Stratify Risk for Advanced Colorectal Neoplasia in Asymptomatic Adults: A Cross-sectional Study.
Article in Annals of internal medicine, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 39 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
39 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 88 citations in OpenAlex.
- Pooled it
- Risk Scores for Predicting Advanced Colorectal Neoplasia in the Average-risk Population: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.The American journal of gastroenterology · 2018Pooled it
- Colorectal Cancer Screening: Recommendations for Physicians and Patients from the U.S. Multi-Society Task Force on Colorectal Cancer.The American journal of gastroenterology · 2017Guideline
- Should Screening Colonoscopy Be Offered From Age 50?Deutsches Arzteblatt international · 2017Trial
- Trial
- Enhancing FIT-based colorectal cancer screening through risk prediction: a comparative evaluation of 17 models in a large Chinese cohort.Cancer biology & medicine · 2026Article
- A qualitative study of a new metric for estimating early-onset colorectal cancer risk in male veterans: "Colon Age".BMC primary care · 2025Article
- Risk prediction of advanced colorectal neoplasia varies by race and neighbourhood socioeconomic status.Family medicine and community health · 2024Article
- Review
- Development and validation of a prediction model for early screening of people at high risk for colorectal cancer.World journal of gastroenterology · 2024Article
- Reply: Request for clarification on symptom assessment methodology in high-risk population colonoscopy study.Cancer medicine · 2023Article
- Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment and Precision Approaches to Screening: Brave New World or Worlds Apart?Gastroenterology · 2023Review
- A risk scoring system for advanced colorectal neoplasia in high-risk participants to improve current colorectal cancer screening in Tianjin, China.BMC gastroenterology · 2022Article
- External validation of models for predicting risk of colorectal cancer using the China Kadoorie Biobank.BMC medicine · 2022Article
- A risk-prediction score for colorectal lesions on 12,628 participants at high risk of colorectal cancer.Gastroenterology report · 2022Article
- A microRNA panel compared to environmental and polygenic scores for colorectal cancer risk prediction.Nature communications · 2021Article
- Application of deep learning to predict advanced neoplasia using big clinical data in colorectal cancer screening of asymptomatic adults.The Korean journal of internal medicine · 2021Article
- Development and validation of new poisoning mortality score system for patients with acute poisoning at the emergency department.Critical care (London, England) · 2021Article
- Deep Neural Network-Based Prediction of the Risk of Advanced Colorectal Neoplasia.Gut and liver · 2021Article
- Risk prediction rule for advanced neoplasia on screening colonoscopy for average-risk individuals.World journal of gastroenterology · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundSeveral methods are recommended equally strongly for colorectal cancer screening in average-risk persons. Risk stratification would enable tailoring of screening within this group, with less invasive tests (sigmoidoscopy or occult blood tests) for lower-risk persons and colonoscopy for higher-risk persons.
objectiveTo create a risk index for advanced neoplasia (colorectal cancer and adenomas or serrated polyps ≥1.0 cm, villous histology, or high-grade dysplasia) anywhere in the colorectum, using the most common risk factors for colorectal neoplasia.
designCross-sectional study.
settingMultiple endoscopy units, primarily in the Midwest. PATIENTS: Persons aged 50 to 80 years undergoing initial screening colonoscopy (December 2004 to September 2011). MEASUREMENTS: Derivation and validation of a risk index based on points from regression coefficients for age, sex, waist circumference, cigarette smoking, and family history of colorectal cancer.
resultsAmong 2993 persons in the derivation set, prevalence of advanced neoplasia was 9.4%. Risks for advanced neoplasia in persons at very low, low, intermediate, and high risk were 1.92% (95% CI, 0.63% to 4.43%), 4.88% (CI, 3.79% to 6.18%), 9.93% (CI, 8.09% to 12.0%), and 24.9% (CI, 21.1% to 29.1%), respectively (P < 0.001). Sigmoidoscopy to the descending colon in the low-risk groups would have detected 51 of 70 (73% [CI, 61% to 83%]) advanced neoplasms. Among 1467 persons in the validation set, corresponding risks for advanced neoplasia were 1.65% (CI, 0.20% to 5.84%), 3.31% (CI, 2.08% to 4.97%), 10.9% (CI, 8.26% to 14.1%), and 22.3% (CI, 16.9% to 28.5%), respectively (P < 0.001). Sigmoidoscopy would have detected 21 of 24 (87.5% [CI, 68% to 97%]) advanced neoplasms. LIMITATIONS: Split-sample validation; results apply to first-time screening.
conclusionThis index stratifies risk for advanced neoplasia among average-risk persons by identifying lower-risk groups for which noncolonoscopy strategies may be effective and efficient and a higher-risk group for which colonoscopy may be preferred. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Cancer Institute, Walther Cancer Institute, Indiana University Simon Cancer Center, and Indiana Clinical and Translational Sciences Institute.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.