ArticlePloS one2015
Likelihood of Null Effects of Large NHLBI Clinical Trials Has Increased over Time.
Article in PloS one, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 88 papers, 10 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
88 citing papers in PubMed, 10 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Caution is necessary in interpreting musculoskeletal physiotherapy intervention outcomes: a methodological review of physiotherapy neuromusculoskeletal reviews.The Journal of manual & manipulative therapy · 2025Pooled it
- Effect of laser-microtextured abutments on peri-implant outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Clinical oral investigations · 2024Pooled it
- Estimating the prevalence of discrepancies between study registrations and publications: a systematic review and meta-analyses.BMJ open · 2023Pooled it
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- The effects of school-based interventions on physiological stress in adolescents: A meta-analysis.Stress and health : journal of the International Society for the Investigation of Stress · 2022Pooled it
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- Probiotics for treating acute infectious diarrhoea.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2020Pooled it
- Outcome reporting bias in randomized-controlled trials investigating antipsychotic drugs.Translational psychiatry · 2017Pooled it
- Effect Sizes and Primary Outcomes in Large-Budget, Cardiovascular-Related Behavioral Randomized Controlled Trials Funded by NIH Since 1980.Annals of behavioral medicine : a publication of the Society of Behavioral Medicine · 2016Pooled it
- Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Red on Perceived Attractiveness.Evolutionary psychology : an international journal of evolutionary approaches to psychology and behaviorPooled it
- Good clinical practice improves rigor and transparency: Lessons from the ACTIVE trial.Psychology and aging · 2022Trial
- Trial
- Does neural face processing explain effects of an attachment-based intervention on maternal sensitivity? A randomized controlled study including pre- and postintervention measures.Brain and behavior · 2022Trial
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- A survey of researchers' attitudes to preregistration in animal research reveals multiple perceived barriers to adoption.PLoS biology · 2026Article
- A call for preregistration of in vitro research : Pregistration as a tool to improve reproducibility and transparency.EMBO reports · 2026Article
- Improving the transparency of animal experiments: valuable lessons learned from a systematic analysis of registration protocols.BMC veterinary research · 2026Article
- Article
- Learning from missteps: Potential of transcranial electrical stimulation in neuropsychological rehabilitation.Journal of neuropsychology · 2025Review
- Political ideology and trust in scientists in the USA.Nature human behaviour · 2025Article
28 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundWe explore whether the number of null results in large National Heart Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) funded trials has increased over time.
methodsWe identified all large NHLBI supported RCTs between 1970 and 2012 evaluating drugs or dietary supplements for the treatment or prevention of cardiovascular disease. Trials were included if direct costs >$500,000/year, participants were adult humans, and the primary outcome was cardiovascular risk, disease or death. The 55 trials meeting these criteria were coded for whether they were published prior to or after the year 2000, whether they registered in clinicaltrials.gov prior to publication, used active or placebo comparator, and whether or not the trial had industry co-sponsorship. We tabulated whether the study reported a positive, negative, or null result on the primary outcome variable and for total mortality.
results17 of 30 studies (57%) published prior to 2000 showed a significant benefit of intervention on the primary outcome in comparison to only 2 among the 25 (8%) trials published after 2000 (χ2=12.2,df= 1, p=0.0005). There has been no change in the proportion of trials that compared treatment to placebo versus active comparator. Industry co-sponsorship was unrelated to the probability of reporting a significant benefit. Pre-registration in clinical trials.gov was strongly associated with the trend toward null findings.
conclusionsThe number NHLBI trials reporting positive results declined after the year 2000. Prospective declaration of outcomes in RCTs, and the adoption of transparent reporting standards, as required by clinicaltrials.gov, may have contributed to the trend toward null findings.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.