Early prediction of language and literacy problems: is 18 months too early?

There is a lack of stability in language difficulties across early childhood: most late talkers (LTs) resolve their difficulties by pre-school; and a significant number of children who were not LTs subsequently manifest language difficulties. Greater reliability in predicting individual outcomes is needed, which might be achieved by waiting until later in development when language is more stable. At 18 months, productive vocabulary scores on the Oxford Communicative Developmental Inventory were used to classify children as LTs or average talkers (ATs). Thirty matched-pairs of LTs and ATs were followed up at school-age (average age 7 years), when language and literacy outcomes were assessed. For 18 children, intermediate testing at age 4 had classified them as showing typical development (TD) or specific language impairment (SLI). After correcting for multiple comparisons, there were no significant differences between the LTs and ATs on any outcome measure, and the LTs were performing in the average range. However, there were large-sized effects on all outcomes when comparing the TD and SLI groups. LT status on its own is not determinative of language and literacy difficulties. It would therefore not be appropriate to use expressive vocabulary measures alone to screen for language difficulties at 18 months. However, children with language impairment at age 4 are at risk of enduring difficulties.