ArticlePloS one2015
A Comparison of South African National HIV Incidence Estimates: A Critical Appraisal of Different Methods.
Article in PloS one, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 49 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
49 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Use of HIV Recency Assays for HIV Incidence Estimation and Other Surveillance Use Cases: Systematic Review.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2022Pooled it
- Cross-sectional estimates revealed high HIV incidence in Botswana rural communities in the era of successful ART scale-up in 2013-2015.PloS one · 2018Trial
- Evaluation of economic strengthening in South Africa and its impact on HIV, sexually transmitted infections, and teenage births: A modelling study.PLoS medicine · 2025Article
- Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on HIV Testing, Recent Infections, and Annualized Incidence Among Cisgender Men Who Have Sex With Men and Transgender Women in Brazil.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2025Article
- The cyclical cascade of HIV care: Temporal care engagement trends within a population-wide cohort.PLoS medicine · 2024Observational
- A quantitative assessment of the consistency of projections from five mathematical models of the HIV epidemic in South Africa: a model comparison study.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Understanding Uganda's early adoption of novel differentiated HIV treatment services: a qualitative exploration of drivers of policy uptake.BMC health services research · 2023Article
- Subnational HIV incidence trends in Malawi: large, heterogeneous declines across space.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Estimating HIV incidence over a decade in Zimbabwe: A comparison of the catalytic and Farrington models.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- A systematic review of limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay for detection of recent HIV-1 infection to expand supported applications.Journal of virus eradication · 2022Review
- The HIV Epidemic in South Africa: Key Findings from 2017 National Population-Based Survey.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Statistical considerations for cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation based on recency test.Statistics in medicine · 2022Article
- Inferring population HIV incidence trends from surveillance data of recent HIV infection among HIV testing clients.AIDS (London, England) · 2021Article
- Undisclosed HIV status and antiretroviral therapy use among South African blood donors.Transfusion · 2021Article
- Evidence of an untamed HIV epidemic among MSM and TGW in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: a 2018 to 2020 cross-sectional study using recent infection testing.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2021Article
- The impact of the program for medical male circumcision on HIV in South Africa: analysis using three epidemiological models.Gates open research · 2021Article
- Can HIV recent infection surveillance help us better understand where primary prevention efforts should be targeted? Results of three pilots integrating a recent infection testing algorithm into routine programme activities in Kenya and Zimbabwe.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2020Article
- Modeling methods for estimating HIV incidence: a mathematical review.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2020Review
- Factors associated with HIV in younger and older adult men in South Africa: findings from a cross-sectional survey.BMJ open · 2019Article
- HIV estimates through 2018: data for decision-making.AIDS (London, England) · 2019Article
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12 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe interpretation of HIV prevalence trends is increasingly difficult as antiretroviral treatment programs expand. Reliable HIV incidence estimates are critical to monitoring transmission trends and guiding an effective national response to the epidemic. METHODS AND
findingsWe used a range of methods to estimate HIV incidence in South Africa: (i) an incidence testing algorithm applying the Limiting-Antigen Avidity Assay (LAg-Avidity EIA) in combination with antiretroviral drug and HIV viral load testing; (ii) a modelling technique based on the synthetic cohort principle; and (iii) two dynamic mathematical models, the EPP/Spectrum model package and the Thembisa model. Overall, the different incidence estimation methods were in broad agreement on HIV incidence estimates among persons aged 15-49 years in 2012. The assay-based method produced slightly higher estimates of incidence, 1.72% (95% CI 1.38 - 2.06), compared with the mathematical models, 1.47% (95% CI 1.23 - 1.72) in Thembisa and 1.52% (95% CI 1.43 - 1.62) in EPP/Spectrum, and slightly lower estimates of incidence compared to the synthetic cohort, 1.9% (95% CI 0.8 - 3.1) over the period from 2008 to 2012. Among youth aged 15-24 years, a declining trend in HIV incidence was estimated by all three mathematical estimation methods.
conclusionsThe multi-method comparison showed similar levels and trends in HIV incidence and validated the estimates provided by the assay-based incidence testing algorithm. Our results confirm that South Africa is the country with the largest number of new HIV infections in the world, with about 1 000 new infections occurring each day among adults aged 15-49 years in 2012.
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