Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26228717›Full record

ArticleDiabetologia2015

Regular peaks and troughs in the Australian incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus (2000-2011).

Aveni Haynes, Max K Bulsara, Carol Bower, Timothy W Jones, Elizabeth A Davis

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Diabetologia, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Guideline
  2. Well, How Did We Get Here? The Current State of Pediatric Endocrinology.Journal of pediatrics. Clinical practice · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Aveni HaynesTelethon Kids Institute, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia.
Max K BulsaraInstitute of Health and Rehabilitation Research, University of Notre Dame, Fremantle, WA, Australia.
Carol BowerTelethon Kids Institute, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia.
Timothy W JonesTelethon Kids Institute, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia.
Elizabeth A DavisTelethon Kids Institute, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia. Elizabeth.Davis@health.wa.gov.au.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aims/hypothesisThe aim of this study was to determine the incidence and incidence rate trends for type 1 diabetes mellitus in children aged 0-14 years, Australia-wide, from 2000 to 2011.

methodsCases of type 1 diabetes mellitus diagnosed in 0- to 14-year-olds were identified from the National (insulin-treated) Diabetes Register, with a 97% ascertainment rate. Annual age-standardised, sex- and age-specific incidences were calculated and Poisson regression was used to analyse the incidence by calendar year, sex and age at diagnosis. Non-linear temporal trends were analysed using sine and cosine functions applied to Poisson regression models for 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 year cycles, and the Akaike information criterion was used to assess goodness of fit.

resultsA total of 11,575 cases (6,049 boys and 5,526 girls) of childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus were registered between 2000 and 2011, giving a mean incidence of 23.6 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 23.2, 24.0). The mean incidence was 4.9% (95% CI 1.1%, 8.8%) higher in boys than in girls. Compared with 0- to 4-year-olds, the mean incidence was 65% higher in 5- to 9-year-olds and 208% higher in 10- to 14-year-olds. A 5 year cyclical variation in incidence was observed overall, in both sexes and in all age groups. An average annual increase in incidence was observed only in the 10- to 14-year-old age group (increase of 1.2% per year [95% CI 0.4%, 2.1%]). CONCLUSIONS/

interpretationA sinusoidal pattern was observed in the incidence rate trend of childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus in Australia. The 5-yearly peaks and troughs in incidence rate trends observed Australia-wide corroborate findings previously reported for Western Australia and require further investigation.

Indexed as

AdolescentAge DistributionAustraliaChildChild, PreschoolDiabetes Mellitus, Type 1FemaleHumansIncidenceInfantInfant, NewbornMaleSex DistributionAustraliaChildhoodEpidemiologyIncidenceType 1 diabetes mellitus

Identifiers

PMID26228717

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.