Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26224138›Full record

ArticleBMC geriatrics2015

The Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community (RISC): a new instrument for predicting risk of adverse outcomes in community dwelling older adults.

Rónán O'Caoimh, Yang Gao, Anton Svendrovski, Elizabeth Healy, Elizabeth O'Connell, Gabrielle O'Keeffe, Una Cronin, Estera Igras, Eileen O'Herlihy, Carol Fitzgerald and 4 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC geriatrics, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  14. Perceived Risk of Mental Health Problems in Primary Care.Frontiers in aging neuroscience · 2015
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Rónán O'CaoimhCentre for Gerontology and Rehabilitation, University College Cork, St Finbarrs Hospital, Douglas Rd, CorkCity, Ireland. rocaoimh@hotmail.com.
Yang GaoCentre for Gerontology and Rehabilitation, University College Cork, St Finbarrs Hospital, Douglas Rd, CorkCity, Ireland. xhandgy@gmail.com.
Anton SvendrovskiUZIK Consulting Inc., 86 Gerrard St E, Unit 12D, Toronto, ON, M5B 2 J1, Canada. info@statshelp.ca.
Elizabeth HealyCentre for Public Health Nursing, Ballincollig and Bishopstown, Co, Cork, Ireland. elizabeth.healy@hse.ie.
Elizabeth O'ConnellCentre for Public Health Nursing, Mahon and Ballintemple, Cork City, Ireland. elizabeth.oconnell@hse.ie.
Gabrielle O'KeeffeHealth Service Executive of Ireland, South Lee, St Finbarrs Hospital, Douglas Rd, Cork City, Ireland. gabrielle.okeeffe@hse.ie.
Una CroninCentre for Gerontology and Rehabilitation, University College Cork, St Finbarrs Hospital, Douglas Rd, CorkCity, Ireland. una.cronin@ucc.ie.
Estera IgrasCentre for Gerontology and Rehabilitation, University College Cork, St Finbarrs Hospital, Douglas Rd, CorkCity, Ireland. estera_igras@hotmail.com.
Eileen O'HerlihyCentre for Gerontology and Rehabilitation, University College Cork, St Finbarrs Hospital, Douglas Rd, CorkCity, Ireland. eoh@ucc.ie.
Carol FitzgeraldCentre for Gerontology and Rehabilitation, University College Cork, St Finbarrs Hospital, Douglas Rd, CorkCity, Ireland. carol.fitzgerald@ucc.ie.
Elizabeth WeathersCentre for Gerontology and Rehabilitation, University College Cork, St Finbarrs Hospital, Douglas Rd, CorkCity, Ireland. e.weathers@ucc.ie.
Patricia Leahy-WarrenSchool of Nursing and Midwifery, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland. Patricia.Leahy@ucc.ie.
Nicola CornallyCentre for Gerontology and Rehabilitation, University College Cork, St Finbarrs Hospital, Douglas Rd, CorkCity, Ireland. n.cornally@ucc.ie.
D William MolloyCentre for Gerontology and Rehabilitation, University College Cork, St Finbarrs Hospital, Douglas Rd, CorkCity, Ireland. W.Molloy@ucc.ie.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPredicting risk of adverse healthcare outcomes, among community dwelling older adults, is difficult. The Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community (RISC) is a short (2-5 min), global subjective assessment of risk created to identify patients' 1-year risk of three outcomes:institutionalisation, hospitalisation and death.

methodsWe compared the accuracy and predictive ability of the RISC, scored by Public Health Nurses (PHN), to the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) in a prospective cohort study of community dwelling older adults (n = 803), in two Irish PHN sectors. The area under the curve (AUC), from receiver operating characteristic curves and binary logistic regression models, with odds ratios (OR), compared the discriminatory characteristics of the RISC and CFS.

resultsFollow-up data were available for 801 patients. The 1-year incidence of institutionalisation, hospitalisation and death were 10.2, 17.7 and 15.6 % respectively. Patients scored maximum-risk (RISC score 3,4 or 5/5) at baseline had a significantly greater rate of institutionalisation (31.3 and 7.1 %, p < 0.001), hospitalisation (25.4 and 13.2 %, p < 0.001) and death (33.5 and 10.8 %, p < 0.001), than those scored minimum-risk (score 1 or 2/5). The RISC had comparable accuracy for 1-year risk of institutionalisation (AUC of 0.70 versus 0.63), hospitalisation (AUC 0.61 versus 0.55), and death (AUC 0.70 versus 0.67), to the CFS. The RISC significantly added to the predictive accuracy of the regression model for institutionalisation (OR 1.43, p = 0.01), hospitalisation (OR 1.28, p = 0.01), and death (OR 1.58, p = 0.001).

conclusionFollow-up outcomes matched well with baseline risk. The RISC, a short global subjective assessment, demonstrated satisfactory validity compared with the CFS.

Indexed as

Independent LivingAgedAged, 80 and overCohort StudiesFemaleFollow-Up StudiesGeriatric AssessmentHospitalizationHumansInstitutionalizationMaleMass ScreeningPredictive Value of TestsProspective StudiesRisk FactorsSurvival Rate

Identifiers

PMID26224138
PMCPMC4520060

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.