ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2015
Relation between stability and resilience determines the performance of early warning signals under different environmental drivers.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 79 citations in OpenAlex.
- Navigating tipping points: A complex systems framework for anticipating lake ecosystem collapse.Fundamental research · 2026Review
- Viewing social isolation as a complex dynamical system: A theoretical and computational framework.NPP - digital psychiatry and neuroscience · 2025Article
- Monitoring Terrestrial Ecosystem Resilience Using Earth Observation Data: Identifying Consensus and Limitations Across Metrics.Global change biology · 2025Review
- Systematic analysis and optimization of early warning signals for critical transitions using distribution data.iScience · 2023Article
- Non-equilibrium early-warning signals for critical transitions in ecological systems.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Exploring Yeast Diversity to Produce Lipid-Based Biofuels from Agro-Forestry and Industrial Organic Residues.Journal of fungi (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Review
- Early warning signals of infectious disease transitions: a review.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Review
- Decrease in social cohesion in a colonial seabird under a perturbation regime.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Phase transition behaviour in yeast and bacterial populations under stress.Royal Society open science · 2020Article
- Critical transitions in rainfall manipulation experiments on grasslands.Ecology and evolution · 2020Review
- The problem of detrending when analysing potential indicators of disease elimination.Journal of theoretical biology · 2019Article
- Time-dependent saddle-node bifurcation: Breaking time and the point of no return in a non-autonomous model of critical transitions.Physica D. Nonlinear phenomena · 2019Article
- Rate of recovery from perturbations as a means to forecast future stability of living systems.Scientific reports · 2018Article
- Role of noise and parametric variation in the dynamics of gene regulatory circuits.NPJ systems biology and applications · 2018Article
- Cooperators trade off ecological resilience and evolutionary stability in public goods games.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2017Article
- Vegetation Cover Dynamics and Resilience to Climatic and Hydrological Disturbances in Seasonal Floodplain: The Effects of Hydrological Connectivity.Frontiers in plant science · 2017Article
- Article
- Several Indicators of Critical Transitions for Complex Diseases Based on Stochastic Analysis.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2017Article
- Core signalling motif displaying multistability through multi-state enzymes.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2016Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Shifting patterns of temporal fluctuations have been found to signal critical transitions in a variety of systems, from ecological communities to human physiology. However, failure of these early warning signals in some systems calls for a better understanding of their limitations. In particular, little is known about the generality of early warning signals in different deteriorating environments. In this study, we characterized how multiple environmental drivers influence the dynamics of laboratory yeast populations, which was previously shown to display alternative stable states [Dai et al., Science, 2012]. We observed that both the coefficient of variation and autocorrelation increased before population collapse in two slowly deteriorating environments, one with a rising death rate and the other one with decreasing nutrient availability. We compared the performance of early warning signals across multiple environments as "indicators for loss of resilience." We find that the varying performance is determined by how a system responds to changes in a specific driver, which can be captured by a relation between stability (recovery rate) and resilience (size of the basin of attraction). Furthermore, we demonstrate that the positive correlation between stability and resilience, as the essential assumption of indicators based on critical slowing down, can break down in this system when multiple environmental drivers are changed simultaneously. Our results suggest that the stability-resilience relation needs to be better understood for the application of early warning signals in different scenarios.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.