ArticleEpidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)2015
Estimating HIV Incidence, Time to Diagnosis, and the Undiagnosed HIV Epidemic Using Routine Surveillance Data.
Article in Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.), 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 65 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
65 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- A systematic review of models used to estimate undiagnosed HIV prevalence in high-income low-prevalence countries and territories.AIDS (London, England) · 2026Pooled it
- A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis to Estimate the Time from HIV Infection to Diagnosis for People with HIV.AIDS reviews · 2022Pooled it
- Trial
- Evolution of HIV epidemic trends and diagnostic delays in French Guiana: how can we make further progress?BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Statewide multi-year wastewater sequencing reveals dual origins of HIV-1 signal.Nature communications · 2026Article
- HIV cascade, key indicators, and other epidemiological metrics in Australia (2004-2023): a retrospective analysis.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2026Article
- Labor Market Outcomes of People with HIV Pre- and Post-Diagnosis in the Netherlands.Nature communications · 2026Article
- HIV-1 late diagnosis in Cabo Verde: associated factors and implications for preventive strategies.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2026Article
- Progress towards HIV transmission elimination targets: model-based estimation of incidence and the extent of undiagnosed infection, Scotland, 1981 to 2022.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025Article
- CD4 cell count and viral load count association and its joint risk factors among adult TB/HIV co-infected patients: a retrospective follow-up study.BMC research notes · 2025Article
- Applying population-specific incidence prevalence ratio benchmarks to monitor the Australian HIV epidemic: an epidemiological analysis.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2024Article
- Disparate trajectories of cognitive aging among American Indian and Alaskan Native people with and without HIV.Neuropsychology · 2024Article
- Three-stage modeling of HIV infection and implications for antiretroviral therapy.Journal of mathematical biology · 2024Article
- Inferring Viral Transmission Time from Phylogenies for Known Transmission Pairs.Molecular biology and evolution · 2024Article
- Methods and Assumptions for Estimating Key HIV Indicators in the UNAIDS Annual Estimates Process.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2024Article
- Possibility of Decreasing Incidence of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection in Korea.Infection & chemotherapy · 2023Article
- Inferring viral transmission time from phylogenies for known transmission pairs.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2023Article
- Determinants of Successful Human Immunodeficiency Virus Treatment Outcomes: A Linkage of National Data Sources in Malaysia.The Malaysian journal of medical sciences : MJMS · 2023Article
- bayroot: Bayesian sampling of HIV-1 integration dates by root-to-tip regression.Virus evolution · 2023Article
- Duration of delayed diagnosis in HIV/AIDS patients in Iran: a CD4 depletion model analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
5 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundEstimates of the size of the undiagnosed HIV-infected population are important to understand the HIV epidemic and to plan interventions, including "test-and-treat" strategies.
methodsWe developed a multi-state back-calculation model to estimate HIV incidence, time between infection and diagnosis, and the undiagnosed population by CD4 count strata, using surveillance data on new HIV and AIDS diagnoses. The HIV incidence curve was modelled using cubic splines. The model was tested on simulated data and applied to surveillance data on men who have sex with men in The Netherlands.
resultsThe number of HIV infections could be estimated accurately using simulated data, with most values within the 95% confidence intervals of model predictions. When applying the model to Dutch surveillance data, 15,400 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 15,000, 16,000) men who have sex with men were estimated to have been infected between 1980 and 2011. HIV incidence showed a bimodal distribution, with peaks around 1985 and 2005 and a decline in recent years. Mean time to diagnosis was 6.1 (95% CI = 5.8, 6.4) years between 1984 and 1995 and decreased to 2.6 (2.3, 3.0) years in 2011. By the end of 2011, 11,500 (11,000, 12,000) men who have sex with men in The Netherlands were estimated to be living with HIV, of whom 1,750 (1,450, 2,200) were still undiagnosed. Of the undiagnosed men who have sex with men, 29% (22, 37) were infected for less than 1 year, and 16% (13, 20) for more than 5 years.
conclusionsThis multi-state back-calculation model will be useful to estimate HIV incidence, time to diagnosis, and the undiagnosed HIV epidemic based on routine surveillance data.
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