Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26200913›Full record

SynthesisPloS one2015

Projection of Diabetes Population Size and Associated Economic Burden through 2030 in Iran: Evidence from Micro-Simulation Markov Model and Bayesian Meta-Analysis.

Mehdi Javanbakht, Atefeh Mashayekhi, Hamid R Baradaran, AliAkbar Haghdoost, Ashkan Afshin

Abstract readMeta-AnalysisSystematic Review
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Synthesis in PloS one, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 66 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
66citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

66 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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  7. [Costs of pharmacological treatment in hypertension and type 2 diabetes mellitus].Revista medica del Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social · 2026
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6 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Mehdi JavanbakhtHealth Economics Research Unit, Institute of Applied Health Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom.
Atefeh MashayekhiEndocrine Research Center, Institute of Endocrinology & Metabolism, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Hamid R BaradaranEndocrine Research Center, Institute of Endocrinology & Metabolism, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
AliAkbar HaghdoostKerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Ashkan AfshinFriedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, Boston, United States of America.

Funding

Chief Scientist Office HERU1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Iran from 2009 to 2030.

methodsA Markov micro-simulation (MM) model was developed to predict the DM population size and associated economic burden. Age- and sex-specific prevalence and incidence of diagnosed and undiagnosed DM were derived from national health surveys. A systematic review was performed to identify the cost of diabetes in Iran and the mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM were estimated using a random-effect Bayesian meta-analysis. Face, internal, cross and predictive validity of the MM model were assessed by consulting an expert group, performing sensitivity analysis (SA) and comparing model results with published literature and national survey reports. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to explore the effect of uncertainty in the model.

resultsWe estimated 3.78 million cases of DM (2.74 million diagnosed and 1.04 million undiagnosed) in Iran in 2009. This number is expected to rise to 9.24 million cases (6.73 million diagnosed and 2.50 million undiagnosed) by 2030. The mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM in 2009 were US$ 556 (posterior standard deviation, 221) and US$ 689 (619), respectively. Total estimated annual cost of DM was $3.64 (2009 US$) billion (including US$1.71 billion direct and US$1.93 billion indirect costs) in 2009 and is predicted to increase to $9.0 (in 2009 US$) billion (including US$4.2 billion direct and US$4.8 billion indirect costs) by 2030.

conclusionsThe economic burden of DM in Iran is predicted to increase markedly in the coming decades. Identification and implementation of effective strategies to prevent and manage DM should be considered as a public health priority.

Indexed as

Cost of IllnessBayes TheoremDiabetes MellitusHealth Care CostsHealth SurveysHumansIncidenceIranMarkov ChainsModels, EconometricPrevalence

Identifiers

PMID26200913
PMCPMC4511591

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.