ArticleEmerging infectious diseases2015
Estimates of Outbreak Risk from New Introductions of Ebola with Immediate and Delayed Transmission Control.
Article in Emerging infectious diseases, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Reducing transmission in multiple settings is required to eliminate the risk of major Ebola outbreaks: a mathematical modelling study.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Characterizing tuberculosis transmission dynamics in high-burden urban and rural settings.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Potential for broad-scale transmission of Ebola virus disease during the West Africa crisis: lessons for the Global Health security agenda.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2017Article
- Estimates of the risk of large or long-lasting outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome after importations outside the Arabian Peninsula.Epidemics · 2016Article
- A practical community-based response strategy to interrupt Ebola transmission in sierra Leone, 2014-2015.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2016Article
- Potential Impact of Sexual Transmission on Ebola Virus Epidemiology: Sierra Leone as a Case Study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2016Article
- Article
- Rapid drop in the reproduction number during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo.PeerJ · 2015Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
While the ongoing Ebola outbreak continues in the West Africa countries of Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, health officials elsewhere prepare for new introductions of Ebola from infected evacuees or travelers. We analyzed transmission data from patients (i.e., evacuees, international travelers, and those with locally acquired illness) in countries other than the 3 with continuing Ebola epidemics and quantitatively assessed the outbreak risk from new introductions by using different assumptions for transmission control (i.e., immediate and delayed). Results showed that, even in countries that can quickly limit expected number of transmissions per case to <1, the probability that a single introduction will lead to a substantial number of transmissions is not negligible, particularly if transmission variability is high. Identifying incoming infected travelers before symptom onset can decrease worst-case outbreak sizes more than reducing transmissions from patients with locally acquired cases, but performing both actions can have a synergistic effect.
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