ArticlePloS one2015
A New Method for Estimating the Number of Undiagnosed HIV Infected Based on HIV Testing History, with an Application to Men Who Have Sex with Men in Seattle/King County, WA.
Article in PloS one, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis to Estimate the Time from HIV Infection to Diagnosis for People with HIV.AIDS reviews · 2022Pooled it
- The HIV Epidemic in the United States - Epidemiological Projections and Public Economic Impact of Achieving Zero Transmission Goals.ClinicoEconomics and outcomes research : CEOR · 2025Article
- Article
- High percentage of undiagnosed HIV cases within a hyperendemic South African community: a population-based study.Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2018Article
- Article
- Impact of an Electronic Medical Record-Based System to Promote Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Hepatitis C Virus Screening in Public Hospital Primary Care Clinics.Open forum infectious diseases · 2017Article
- Integrating HIV Testing as an Outcome of STD Partner Services for Men Who Have Sex with Men.AIDS patient care and STDs · 2016Article
- Article
- Estimating the First 90 of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 Goal: A Review.Journal of the International Association of Providers of AIDS CareReview
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
We develop a new approach for estimating the undiagnosed fraction of HIV cases, the first step in the HIV Care Cascade. The goal is to address a critical blindspot in HIV prevention and treatment planning, with an approach that simplifies data requirements and can be implemented with open-source software. The primary data required is HIV testing history information on newly diagnosed cases. Two methods are presented and compared. The first is a general methodology based on simplified back-calculation that can be used to assess changes in the undiagnosed fraction over time. The second makes an assumption of constant incidence, allowing the estimate to be expressed as a simple closed formula calculation. We demonstrate the methods with an application to HIV diagnoses among men who have sex with men (MSM) from Seattle/King County. The estimates suggest that 6% of HIV-infected MSM in King County are undiagnosed, about one-third of the comparable national estimate. A sensitivity analysis on the key distributional assumption gives an upper bound of 11%. The undiagnosed fraction varies by race/ethnicity, with estimates of 4.9% among white, 8.6% of African American, and 9.3% of Hispanic HIV-infected MSM being undiagnosed.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.