Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26195757›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2015

Impact of fossil fuel emissions on atmospheric radiocarbon and various applications of radiocarbon over this century.

Heather D Graven

Open access · bronzeAbstract readHistorical Article
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed
8.8field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 156 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Minimal impact of recent decline in CCommunications earth & environment · 2026
    Article
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Making the case for an International Decade of Radiocarbon.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023
    Review
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Changes to Carbon Isotopes in Atmospheric COGlobal biogeochemical cycles · 2020
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Water resources research · 2019
    Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

1 author at 1 institution in 1 country.

Heather D GravenDepartment of Physics and Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom h.graven@imperial.ac.uk.
Imperial College London · GB

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Radiocarbon analyses are commonly used in a broad range of fields, including earth science, archaeology, forgery detection, isotope forensics, and physiology. Many applications are sensitive to the radiocarbon ((14)C) content of atmospheric CO2, which has varied since 1890 as a result of nuclear weapons testing, fossil fuel emissions, and CO2 cycling between atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial carbon reservoirs. Over this century, the ratio (14)C/C in atmospheric CO2 (Δ(14)CO2) will be determined by the amount of fossil fuel combustion, which decreases Δ(14)CO2 because fossil fuels have lost all (14)C from radioactive decay. Simulations of Δ(14)CO2 using the emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, the Representative Concentration Pathways, indicate that ambitious emission reductions could sustain Δ(14)CO2 near the preindustrial level of 0‰ through 2100, whereas "business-as-usual" emissions will reduce Δ(14)CO2 to -250‰, equivalent to the depletion expected from over 2,000 y of radioactive decay. Given current emissions trends, fossil fuel emission-driven artificial "aging" of the atmosphere is likely to occur much faster and with a larger magnitude than previously expected. This finding has strong and as yet unrecognized implications for many applications of radiocarbon in various fields, and it implies that radiocarbon dating may no longer provide definitive ages for samples up to 2,000 y old.

Indexed as

Air PollutantsAtmosphereCarbonCarbon CycleCarbon RadioisotopesComputer SimulationFossil FuelsHistory, 21st CenturyModels, TheoreticalTime FactorsAir PollutantsCarbonCarbon RadioisotopesFossil Fuels14C datingatmospheric CO2fossil fuel emissionsisotope forensicsradiocarbon

Identifiers

PMID26195757
PMCPMC4534253
OpenAlexW1929327134

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.