ArticleZeitschrift fur Gesundheitswissenschaften = Journal of public health
The demographic impact on the demand for emergency medical services in the urban and rural regions of Bavaria, 2012-2032.
Article in Zeitschrift fur Gesundheitswissenschaften = Journal of public health. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed.
- Evaluating performance and potential clinical benefit of the Swedish On Scene Injury Severity Prediction (OSISP) model for prehospital field triage on Norwegian trauma data.Scandinavian journal of trauma, resuscitation and emergency medicine · 2026Article
- Pediatric pre-hospital emergencies in a rural region in northern Germany: frequency, urgency, patterns of utilization, and comparison with adult cases.BMC emergency medicine · 2026Observational
- A Long-Term Projection for Emergency Ambulance Services Demand in Taipei and the Related Effects by Temperature.Emergency medicine international · 2026Article
- Strengthening the WHO Emergency Care Systems Framework: insights from an integrated, patient-centered approach in the Copenhagen Emergency Medical Services system-a qualitative system analysis.BMC health services research · 2025Article
- Is non-conveyance solo-ambulances a useful mean to meet the increasing demand for emergency medical services in Denmark?BMC health services research · 2025Article
- Influence of working conditions on German paramedics' intention to leave the profession: a cross-sectional study.Frontiers in health services · 2025Article
- Factors affecting emergency medical dispatchers decision making in stroke calls - a qualitative study.BMC emergency medicine · 2024Article
- Prospective and External Validation of Machine Learning Models for Short- and Long-Term Mortality in Acutely Admitted Patients Using Blood Tests.Journal of clinical medicine · 2024Article
- The Use of Medical Services for Low-Acuity Emergency Cases in Germany: Protocol for a Multicenter Observational Pilot Study.JMIR research protocols · 2024Article
- Article
- Predictors, Prevalence, and Clinical Outcomes of Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrests in Croatia: A Nationwide Study.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Apart from the Medical Complaints, Why do Patients Use Emergency Medical Services? Results of a Patient Survey.Gesundheitswesen (Bundesverband der Arzte des Offentlichen Gesundheitsdienstes (Germany)) · 2022Article
- Assessing Trauma Center Accessibility for Healthcare Equity Using an Anti-Covering Approach.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Emergency medical service utilization among acute ischemic stroke patients in Beijing: An observational study.Frontiers in neurology · 2022Article
- Analysis of costs and utilization of ambulance services in the ministry of health facilities, Malaysia.PloS one · 2022Article
- Coverage versus response time objectives in ambulance location.International journal of health geographics · 2021Article
- Which symptoms pose the highest risk in patients calling for an ambulance? A population-based cohort study from Denmark.Scandinavian journal of trauma, resuscitation and emergency medicine · 2021Article
- Socio-spatial disparities in access to emergency health care-A Scandinavian case study.PloS one · 2021Article
- Disparities between Rural and Urban Areas of the Central Region of Saudi Arabia in the Utilization and Time-Centeredness of Emergency Medical Services.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Non-specific diagnoses are frequent in patients hospitalized after calling 112 and their mortality is high - a register-based Danish cohort study.Scandinavian journal of trauma, resuscitation and emergency medicine · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
aimIn most regions of the world, the proportion of older people in the population has increased during the last decades. As this entails major consequences for the healthcare sector, this study isolates and quantifies the impact of an aging population on the demand for emergency medical services in different types of regions in Bavaria between 2012 and 2032.
methodsDispatch data of the emergency medical services were combined with population data and forecasts. Age-specific rates of emergency ambulance dispatches were calculated and used for a 20-year-projection for all 71 rural and 25 urban districts of Bavaria. Tests for differences between these two types of regions were applied.
resultsPer capita rates of emergency ambulance dispatches in urban regions tend to be higher and there is an urban-rural distinction in the rates of specific age groups. The projection predicted an overall increase in emergency ambulance dispatches by 21 % in Bavaria within 20 years, solely due to demographic effects. At the regional level, this demographic impact ranged from about -3 % to +41 %. There is a clear urban-rural distinction and the 28 regions with the strongest increase are all rural regions.
conclusionThe substantial demographic impact in combination with strong urban-rural variations should be accounted for in regional long-term planning as well as age-group specific innovation in the emergency medical services. As demography is not the only significant demand factor, the identification and quantification of other factors remains a challenge for further research.
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