ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2015
Effect of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide on the global threat of zinc deficiency: a modelling study.
Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 41 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
41 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 168 citations in OpenAlex.
- Elevated COFrontiers in plant science · 2025Pooled it
- The effect of zinc-biofortified rice on zinc status of Bangladeshi preschool children: a randomized, double-masked, household-based, controlled trial.The American journal of clinical nutrition · 2022Trial
- Adverse outcome pathways of titanium dioxide nanoparticles and marine heatwaves on byssal performance in mussels.Eco-Environment & Health · 2026Article
- Future changes in climate suitability, yields, and calorie optimization of four global staple food crops.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Crop biofortification for global food security: advances in genetic engineering and biotechnological approaches.Plant molecular biology · 2026Review
- Elevated COFrontiers in plant science · 2026Review
- Crops and rising atmospheric COPhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2025Review
- Increased Temperature Effects During Fruit Growth and Maturation on the Fruit Quality, Sensory and Antioxidant Properties of Raspberry (Foods (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Climate change and resilience, adaptation, and sustainability of agriculture in India: A bibliometric review.Heliyon · 2024Review
- The role of zinc in the premature brain: functions, outcomes and future research perspectives.Frontiers in pediatrics · 2024Review
- Article
- Nutrient management: as a panacea to improve the caryopsis quality and yield potential of durum wheat (Frontiers in plant science · 2023Review
- Effects of combined abiotic stresses on nutrient content of European wheat and implications for nutritional security under climate change.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Uncovering the Research Gaps to Alleviate the Negative Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security: A Review.Frontiers in plant science · 2022Review
- An optimistic future of CPeerJ · 2022Article
- Modification of storage proteins in the barley grain increases endosperm zinc and iron under both normal and elevated atmospheric COPhysiologia plantarum · 2022Article
- Tracking of Zinc Ferrite Nanoparticle Effects on Pea (Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Unlocking the inherent potential of plant genetic resources: food security and climate adaptation strategy in Fiji and the Pacific.Environment, development and sustainability · 2021Review
- Zinc.Advances in food and nutrition research · 2021Review
- Enhancing the Nutritional Quality of Major Food Crops Through Conventional and Genomics-Assisted Breeding.Frontiers in nutrition · 2020Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIncreasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) lower the content of zinc and other nutrients in important food crops. Zinc deficiency is currently responsible for large burdens of disease globally, and the populations who are at highest risk of zinc deficiency also receive most of their dietary zinc from crops. By modelling dietary intake of bioavailable zinc for the populations of 188 countries under both an ambient CO2 and elevated CO2 scenario, we sought to estimate the effect of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on the global risk of zinc deficiency.
methodsWe estimated per capita per day bioavailable intake of zinc for the populations of 188 countries at ambient CO2 concentrations (375-384 ppm) using food balance sheet data for 2003-07 from the Food and Agriculture Organization. We then used previously published data from free air CO2 enrichment and open-top chamber experiments to model zinc intake at elevated CO2 concentrations (550 ppm, which is the concentration expected by 2050). Estimates developed by the International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group were used for country-specific theoretical mean daily per-capita physiological requirements for zinc. Finally, we used these data on zinc bioavailability and population-weighted estimated average zinc requirements to estimate the risk of inadequate zinc intake among the populations of the different nations under the two scenarios (ambient and elevated CO2). The difference between the population at risk at elevated and ambient CO2 concentrations (ie, population at new risk of zinc deficiency) was our measure of impact.
findingsThe total number of people estimated to be placed at new risk of zinc deficiency by 2050 was 138 million (95% CI 120-156). The people likely to be most affected live in Africa and South Asia, with nearly 48 million (32-63) residing in India alone. Global maps of increased risk show significant heterogeneity.
interpretationOur results indicate that one heretofore unquantified human health effect associated with anthropogenic CO2 emissions will be a significant increase in the human population at risk of zinc deficiency. Our country-specific findings can be used to help guide interventions aimed at reducing this vulnerability.
fundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Winslow Foundation.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.