Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26179647›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2015

Development and validation of a screening tool to predict the risk of chronic low back pain in patients presenting with acute low back pain: a study protocol.

Adrian Traeger, Nicholas Henschke, Markus Hübscher, Christopher M Williams, Steven J Kamper, Chris G Maher, G Lorimer Moseley, James H McAuley

Abstract readValidation Study

PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher

In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it

0cells of the map it votes in

18citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it

–field-weighted citation impact

1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

Can screening instruments accurately determine poor outcome risk in adults with recent onset low back pain? A systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC medicine · 2017
Pooled it
Clinical indicators associated with pain trajectories in non-specific neck pain: a secondary analysis of a multicentre prospective observational cohort to develop a clinical compass for personalised physiotherapy in primary care.BMJ open · 2026
Observational
Reductions in Perceived Injustice are Associated with Reductions in Pain Catastrophizing in Individuals with Low Back Pain.Journal of pain research · 2025
Article
Development and internal validation of a multivariable prognostic model to predict chronic pain after a new episode of non-specific idiopathic, non-traumatic neck pain in physiotherapy primary care practice.BMJ open · 2024
Article
A study protocol for the validation of a prognostic model with an emphasis on modifiable factors to predict chronic pain after a new episode of acute- or subacute nonspecific idiopathic, non-traumatic neck pain presenting in primary care.PloS one · 2023
Article
Profile of individuals with low back pain and factors defining chronicity of pain: a population-based study in Ethiopia.Quality of life research : an international journal of quality of life aspects of treatment, care and rehabilitation · 2022
Article
Development and external validation of a prediction model for patient-relevant outcomes in patients with chronic widespread pain and fibromyalgia.European journal of pain (London, England) · 2022
Article
Recovery trajectories over six weeks in patients selected for a high-intensity physiotherapy program after Total knee Arthroplasty: a latent class analysis.BMC musculoskeletal disorders · 2021
Article
EEG microstate features according to performance on a mental arithmetic task.Scientific reports · 2021
Article
Developing a triage tool for use in identifying people living with HIV who are at risk for non-retention in HIV care.International journal of STD & AIDS · 2020
Article
Development of a prediction model for 30-day acute readmissions among older medical patients: the influence of social factors along with other patient-specific and organisational factors.BMJ open quality · 2019
Observational
Prediction of Persistent Musculoskeletal Pain at 12 Months: A Secondary Analysis of the Optimal Screening for Prediction of Referral and Outcome (OSPRO) Validation Cohort Study.Physical therapy · 2018
Article
Development of a risk stratification and prevention index for stratified care in chronic low back pain. Focus: yellow flags (MiSpEx network).Pain reports · 2017
Article
Diagnosis of psychosocial risk factors in prevention of low back pain in athletes (MiSpEx).BMJ open sport & exercise medicine · 2017
Article
Associations between Trunk Extension Endurance and Isolated Lumbar Extension Strength in Both Asymptomatic Participants and Those with Chronic Low Back Pain.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2016
Article
Validation, Optimal Threshold Determination, and Clinical Utility of the Infant Risk of Overweight Checklist for Early Prevention of Child Overweight.Childhood obesity (Print) · 2016
Article
Estimating the Risk of Chronic Pain: Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model (PICKUP) for Patients with Acute Low Back Pain.PLoS medicine · 2016
Article
Identification and Management of Chronic Pain in Primary Care: a Review.Current psychiatry reports · 2016
Review

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Adrian TraegerSchool of Medical Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia Neuroscience Research Australia, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.

Nicholas HenschkeInstitute of Public Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany.

Markus HübscherSchool of Medical Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia Neuroscience Research Australia, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.

Christopher M WilliamsHunter Medical Research Institute and School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia The George Institute for Global Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.

Steven J KamperThe George Institute for Global Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.

Chris G MaherThe George Institute for Global Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.

G Lorimer MoseleyNeuroscience Research Australia, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia Sansom Institute for Health Research, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.

James H McAuleySchool of Medical Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia Neuroscience Research Australia, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionAround 40% of people presenting to primary care with an episode of acute low back pain develop chronic low back pain. In order to reduce the risk of developing chronic low back pain, effective secondary prevention strategies are needed. Early identification of at-risk patients allows clinicians to make informed decisions based on prognostic profile, and researchers to select appropriate participants for secondary prevention trials. The aim of this study is to develop and validate a prognostic screening tool that identifies patients with acute low back pain in primary care who are at risk of developing chronic low back pain. This paper describes the methods and analysis plan for the development and validation of the tool. METHODS/ANALYSIS: The prognostic screening tool will be developed using methods recommended by the Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS) Group and reported using the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement. In the development stage, we will use data from 1248 patients recruited for a prospective cohort study of acute low back pain in primary care. We will construct 3 logistic regression models to predict chronic low back pain according to 3 definitions: any pain, high pain and disability at 3 months. In the validation stage, we will use data from a separate sample of 1643 patients with acute low back pain to assess the performance of each prognostic model. We will produce validation plots showing Nagelkerke R(2) and Brier score (overall performance), area under the curve statistic (discrimination) and the calibration slope and intercept (calibration). ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval from the University of Sydney Ethics Committee was obtained for both of the original studies that we plan to analyse using the methods outlined in this protocol (Henschke et al, ref 11-2002/3/3144; Williams et al, ref 11638).

Indexed as

Acute PainChronic PainEarly DiagnosisHumansLow Back PainMulticenter Studies as TopicNew South WalesPrognosisRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicRisk AssessmentEPIDEMIOLOGYPRIMARY CARE

Identifiers

PMID26179647

DOI10.1136/bmjopen-2015-007916

PMCPMC4513486

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata

LicenceCC BY-NC

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.