ArticleInternational journal of epidemiology2015
Trends of HIV-1 incidence with credible intervals in Sweden 2002-09 reconstructed using a dynamic model of within-patient IgG growth.
Article in International journal of epidemiology, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 14 citations in OpenAlex.
- Article
- Sweden surpasses the UNAIDS 95-95-95 target: estimating HIV-1 incidence, 2003 to 2022.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2024Article
- Combining biomarker and virus phylogenetic models improves HIV-1 epidemiological source identification.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Inferring transmission heterogeneity using virus genealogies: Estimation and targeted prevention.PLoS computational biology · 2020Article
- Getting more from heterogeneous HIV-1 surveillance data in a high immigration country: estimation of incidence and undiagnosed population size using multiple biomarkers.International journal of epidemiology · 2019Article
- Estimation of delay to diagnosis and incidence in HIV using indirect evidence of infection dates.BMC medical research methodology · 2018Article
- Estimating time of HIV-1 infection from next-generation sequence diversity.PLoS computational biology · 2017Article
- Inference of Transmission Network Structure from HIV Phylogenetic Trees.PLoS computational biology · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundHIV-1 is a lifelong disease, often without serious symptoms for years after infection, and thus many infected persons go undetected for a long time. This makes it difficult to track incidence, and thus epidemics may go through dramatic changes largely unnoticed, only to be detected years later. Because direct measurement of incidence is expensive and difficult, several biomarker-based tests and algorithms have been developed to distinguish between recent and long-term infections. However, current methods have been criticized and demands for novel methods have been raised.
methodsWe developed and applied a biomarker-based incidence model, joining a time-continuous model of immunoglobulin G (IgG) growth (measured by the IgG-capture BED-enzyme immunoassay) with statistical corrections for both sample size and unobserved diagnoses. Our method uses measurements of IgG concentration in newly diagnosed people to calculate the posterior distribution of infection times. Time from infection to diagnosis is modelled for all individuals in a given period and is used to calculate a sample weight to correct for undiagnosed individuals. We then used a bootstrapping method to reconstruct point estimates and credible intervals of the incidence of HIV-1 in Sweden based on a sample of newly diagnosed people.
resultsWe found evidence for: (i) a slowly but steadily increasing trend in both the incidence and incidence rate in Sweden; and (ii) an increasing but well-controlled epidemic in gay men in Stockholm. Sensitivity analyses showed that our method was robust to realistic levels (up to 15%) of BED misclassification of non-recently infected persons as early infections.
conclusionsWe developed a novel incidence estimator based on previously published theoretical work that has the potential to provide rapid, up-to-date estimates of HIV-1 incidence in populations where BED test data are available.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.