Evidence map›Paper›PMID 26153860›Full record

ArticleNature2015

Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years.

M Sigl, M Winstrup, J R McConnell, K C Welten, G Plunkett, F Ludlow, U Büntgen, M Caffee, N Chellman, D Dahl-Jensen and 14 more

Abstract readHistorical Article
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nature, 2015. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 147 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
147citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

147 citing papers in PubMed.

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  6. Annually resolved atmospheric CONature communications · 2026
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  10. Volcano-climate interactions: reframing the volcano-climate puzzle.Rendiconti Lincei. Scienze fisiche e naturali · 2026
    Article
  11. Intensified tropical cyclone activity in East Asia during the Maunder (solar) Minimum.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  12. Article
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  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
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  18. Article
  19. Geochemical modeling of COCarbon balance and management · 2025
    Article
  20. Article

87 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

24 authors.

M SiglDesert Research Institute, Nevada System of Higher Education, Reno, Nevada 89512, USA.
M WinstrupDepartment of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195, USA.
J R McConnellDesert Research Institute, Nevada System of Higher Education, Reno, Nevada 89512, USA.
K C WeltenSpace Sciences Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA.
G PlunkettSchool of Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast BT7 1NN, UK.
F LudlowYale Climate and Energy Institute, and Department of History, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06511, USA.
U Büntgen1] Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland [2] Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland [3] Global Change Research Centre AS CR, 60300 Brno, Czech Republic.
M Caffee1] Department of Physics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907, USA [2] Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907, USA.
N ChellmanDesert Research Institute, Nevada System of Higher Education, Reno, Nevada 89512, USA.
D Dahl-JensenCentre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark.
H Fischer1] Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland [2] Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.
S KipfstuhlAlfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany.
C KostickDepartment of History, The University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK.
O J MaselliDesert Research Institute, Nevada System of Higher Education, Reno, Nevada 89512, USA.
F MekhaldiDepartment of Geology, Quaternary Sciences, Lund University, 22362 Lund, Sweden.
R MulvaneyBritish Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
R MuschelerDepartment of Geology, Quaternary Sciences, Lund University, 22362 Lund, Sweden.
D R PasterisDesert Research Institute, Nevada System of Higher Education, Reno, Nevada 89512, USA.
J R PilcherSchool of Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast BT7 1NN, UK.
M SalzerThe Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA.
S Schüpbach1] Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland [2] Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.
J P SteffensenCentre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark.
B M VintherCentre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark.
T E WoodruffDepartment of Physics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Volcanic eruptions contribute to climate variability, but quantifying these contributions has been limited by inconsistencies in the timing of atmospheric volcanic aerosol loading determined from ice cores and subsequent cooling from climate proxies such as tree rings. Here we resolve these inconsistencies and show that large eruptions in the tropics and high latitudes were primary drivers of interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 2,500 years. Our results are based on new records of atmospheric aerosol loading developed from high-resolution, multi-parameter measurements from an array of Greenland and Antarctic ice cores as well as distinctive age markers to constrain chronologies. Overall, cooling was proportional to the magnitude of volcanic forcing and persisted for up to ten years after some of the largest eruptive episodes. Our revised timescale more firmly implicates volcanic eruptions as catalysts in the major sixth-century pandemics, famines, and socioeconomic disruptions in Eurasia and Mesoamerica while allowing multi-millennium quantification of climate response to volcanic forcing.

Indexed as

ClimateTemperatureAerosolsAmericasAntarctic RegionsAtmosphereBerylliumCarbon RadioisotopesDisastersEuropeGreenlandHistory, AncientHistory, MedievalIceRadioisotopesRadiometric DatingAerosolsBerylliumCarbon RadioisotopesIceRadioisotopesSulfur

Identifiers

PMID26153860

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.